Another refresh on the outlook for the next 6 weeks with the latest data sets now in and suggesting a high chance of above average rainfall and a significant risk of severe weather continuing, especially relating to flash and riverine flooding for many areas of the nation.
As we saw in SA in the past week, this weather is likely to recur a few more times throughout the nation, especially over the northern and eastern parts of the nation. Severe storm outbreaks related to the very high humidity values and the dominance of low pressure across the nation. What you are seeing outside right now is what was forecast 3 months ago for this period and it is likely that we will see this continue into Autumn.
Even if you are living over in the far west, the weather is expected to turn more unsettled and humid after baking in dry heat for a while. Rainfall related to the monsoon trough and tropical mischief will become more commonplace over the coming 6 weeks.
The monsoon lingering through a good portion of the next 6 weeks may generate some early northwest cloud bands as well across the nation, if we see the frontal weather return to southern areas in March. That is a very live idea on the board.
Latest analysis in the video below.
Rainfall Outlook Next 6 Weeks
% chance of exceeding the median rainfall through the next 6 weeks
A very high chance of rainfall exceeding the average over many areas of the nation with the flood risk increasing for interior parts in particular. The weather over the east coast likely to get wetter as we go along. The monsoon to dominate the northern parts of the nation and the likelihood of the MJO moving in during February could increase the cyclone risk. The west will get wetter as we go along through this period and the east and south remaining more humid than not with showers and thunderstorms about with severe weather potential over inland areas. As I say, do not get caught up on all the colours, the nation is expected to see wetter than normal weather for the most part during this period.
Temperature Outlook Next 6 Weeks
% chance of exceeding the median temperatures through the next 6 weeks
No change to the guidance with a seasonal to below seasonal period of weather, with the humidity and heat at the moment across many areas of the nation leading to more cloud development and rainfall, that then brings down the temperatures during the day time, but night time temperatures may be increasing.
More can be found in the video analysis and I encourage you to listen and watch that for context to the above images.
More details to come on this product Friday with a broader update once again. The signals are likely to remain unchanged. Rainfall across the nation derived from the positive SAM and the MJO rotating into phase plus the monsoonal trough remaining active over northern Australia for a good portion of the next 6 weeks.