Many people very nervous about the coming 6-8 weeks as we round out Winter, with a drier than normal passage of weather continuing over the south and southeast areas but a wetter than normal passage of weather over the east and northeast in recent times. It has been a wild ride, ultimately highlighting the very point here, that these forecasts are useful as a guide but will never trump the importance of the short- and medium-term forecasts.
It is important you check back every day here or if you are time poor, join the Subscribers Facebook Page where there are little weather bites daily and a good way to check on whether you need to come back in and review this information.
Let's take a look at the latest information for the remainder of Winter.
CLIMATE VIDEO - REMAINDER OF WINTER 2022 - JULY 5TH 2022
RAINFALL - REMAINDER OF WINTER (SAYS NEXT 6 WEEKS BUT THAT TAKES US TO THE 20TH OF AUGUST)
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the remainder of Winter 2022
The blip in conditions which has seen a wave of above average rainfall through northern and eastern areas of the nation and a wave of below average rainfall across the south and west of the nation. This has been in response to a very anomalous pattern that these models DO NOT see! Once we see the blocking pattern resolve over the next week, conditions will resume more seasonal values across the nation once we see a broad westerly flow develop. This will start to be evident in the next week and at this time, the models are suggesting that it is likely the more traditional westerly wind regime will take over the nation and this then allows the influence from the Indian Ocean Dipole to return to the nation's northwest, central and southeastern areas of the country. So, on the current guidance (reviewing all the international data and local data sets over the past week) the wetter as we go through Winter is the right call. Remember we are not even HALFWAY THROUGH WINTER! This blip in the pattern is unusual but not unheard of and most of the modelling suggests that the drivers are in place for excessive rainfall chances to return via the Indian Ocean, more likely through August but peaking through the Spring which is seasonally expected.
SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA - FOOD BOWL
The southeast starting to see rainfall return through the coming week or two after we lose the blocking pattern over the east. That may still trigger widespread above average rainfall along the east coast in the coming 2 weeks but that starts to ease as the winds tend westerly through the second half of July. As we move into August, the frontal weather looks to become more aggressive according to modelling with the wild card in the mix to increase rainfall totals, the Indian Ocean Influence. There is evidence that may start to take place in August but the other region of influence that created the huge rainfall over QLD is the warmer than normal waters north of the nation, which could also trigger larger rainfall events over QLD and into NSW through August as well ahead of the Indian Ocean influence peaking through Spring. Onshore winds over the east will provide showers, heavier than usual thanks to the warmer than normal waters there. Overall, the interior looks seasonal, but could easily swing wetter if rainfall sweeps southwards from QLD into NSW.
There is still a drier bias over the coming 1-2 weeks for areas that should record regular rainfall, and this looks unlikely to be overcome on the current guidance from the modelling so a weaker drier bias is the right call for southern and eastern VIC, southern SA and extending back into WA where some areas could see 50mm below what you would normally experience. The rainfall will return through the south of the nation, but the intensity is all dependent on the peak of the long wave trough through southern Australia and how much moisture is drawn into each of those systems. There is a lot of moisture sitting back over the Indian Ocean, dammed by the upper ridge over the eastern basin, it will be released into the jet stream at some stage, but more likely into August. Then a wetter Spring is still on the cards.
A drier signal continues compared to the average with weaker cold fronts expected through the remainder of July (they will still be there) and this is leading to many areas over the inland of the SWLD seeing below average totals. The coastal fringe over the south and southwest could see above average rainfall thanks to the warmer than normal SSTs offshore. So those westerly and southwesterly episodes could produce a lot more shower activity. Inland areas, drier for now, but depending on the Indian Ocean influence this could turn on a dime, so keeping much of the interior at a flip of the coin with the context attached that moisture coming in from the northwest into the frontal weather may see widespread falls developing.
A signal for above average rainfall continues for northern Australia with that related to the higher than normal SSTs surrounding northern WA, the Top End and Northern QLD. We have seen one event in relation to the elevated moisture levels and this looks to be repeated again 1-2 times before the season is concluded. The moisture may spread south and southeast into the Ag Areas of the nation. The weather over northern WA more seasonal, with the prevailing winds supporting the wetter weather back through the NT and QLD for now. This is a sign of what Spring will be like this year, with elevated rainfall likely to feature for many areas and the early onset rainfall likely this year. Watching the influence of moisture through August over the interior.
Widespread rainfall that has occurred over the past week is now onto the east, BUT it is likely to develop once again from the same region 1-2 times over the coming 8 weeks with the chance of further well above average rainfall. The rainfall intensity will be dependent on the location of the upper/surface troughs and or upper/surface low pressure. The moisture looks to be deeper than normal regularly over the NT and into QLD with some locations possibly staring down 1/40-year rainfall events once again leading into Spring. So, the wet bias continues for many areas.
TEMPERATURES - REMAINDER OF WINTER (SAYS NEXT 6 WEEKS BUT THAT TAKES US TO THE 20TH OF AUGUST)
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the remainder of Winter 2022
The cooler bias is starting to rebuild once again on a lot of the modelling as they adjust temperatures down on the back of what has been a very cool period this past week and that looks to persist for the coming 2 weeks over northern Australia, that is how long it will take to recover from this very anomalous expression of weather. The pattern returns to more seasonal Wintertime conditions where we see a fast flow pattern over the south with more variability in the temperatures with the northerly flow tending southwesterly more regularly and the easterly dominance at this time, not likely to be repeated until later August. The pattern then allows for generally seasonal values over southern Australia and a cooler bias over the northwest with thicker cloud cover returning and rainfall and northern Australia cooler with plenty of cloud likely to feature from time to time, suppressing temperature growth through the daytime. That has been something that modelling has not seen well in the longer range over northern Australia.
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA - FOOD BOWL
Generally seasonal weather conditions are forecast to continue for the Food Bowl. We could see some periods of above average temperatures and below average temperatures but overall, coming out seasonal. Note that the current pattern of easterly winds, while wet and cooler, overridden the cold freezing nights of last week and below average day time temperatures. So that fluctuation to continue. The westerly wind belt is forecast to increase its influence with warm northerly periods and cooler/colder westerly winds.
Cooler signals for parts of southern Australia expected to feature, with frontal weather, periods of colder westerly winds through later July into August. While there may not be above average rainfall, the persistence of cloud and windy weather will bring cooler conditions for many locations from about the Eyre Peninsula and points west. The interior is expected to be cooler than normal with some chance of larger cloud bands developing from north/northwest to the south and southeast thanks to the elevated SSTs.
The cooler bias continues for the west with the chance of widespread cloud cover, more frequent frontal weather and windy periods to see the overall temperatures come in about 0.5-1.5C below normal. The moisture via the Indian Ocean could also strengthen the cooler bias if it is allowed to pass through the jet stream and into frontal weather. Overall, the cooler signal has verified of late for the west.
Cooler bias over northern Australia set to continue for a week or two but with the elevated SSTs over northern Australia, the temperatures should recover to seasonal by the end of the month and depending on cloud band formation and rainfall expectations, above average temperatures are likely for pockets of the north again leading into a more humid and early build up.
A strong bias for further rainfall events and larger cloud bands to feature over the eastern and northeastern parts of the nation with the elevated SSTs fueling the higher moisture loads and the upper-level northwest winds dragging the moisture south and southeast ahead of wave action over southeast Australia. Any inland low pressure will send the moisture southwards from the Arafura and Timor Sea into QLD, and this is where we will see not only above average rainfall chances but also the chance of below average temperatures.
Refer to the video for further information on the latest data sets for the remainder of Winter
Remember to check back in on the short- and medium-term forecasts. It is imperative that you utlise that rather than looking for unrealistic forecast expectations for longer range forecasts,