CLIMATE - THE OUTLOOK THAT TAKES US INTO EARLY WINTER!!

Where has the year gone!? The year is flying by and many people are back in the saddle or drivers seat and starting to shift operations now from a warmer season phase into a cooler season phase. The weather is in the process of moving into cooler season distribution.


Active weather has been touted in the climate modelling as outlined here for quite some time, it is always best to refer back to the daily updates to verify this information and see my forecasts come to light. We are now starting to feel the impacts of that shift and it should continue to be quite active between now and into May.


Lets have a look at the next 6 weeks.

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall accumulation for the coming 6 weeks

Well if you are looking at some of the guidance, the rainfall signals are off the charts, however you have to take a breath when interpreting the data that is outlined above in the video. Yes, this should not come at a surprise after a longer drier spell for the south and southeast and that warmer spell, we are now moving into the climatological average of the seasonal shift. Most areas should be seeing seasonal rainfall at least! Lets just say that but I am tipping most Ag areas to record above average rainfall. With the waning La Nina helping to promote the positive SAM phase, this could lead to more moisture being propelled across the country via above average SSTs which we can observe at present. This is helping to support the above average rainfall signal, but your number will vary and given Australia is a large landmass, some areas will miss out. But really not a whole lot of change to the signals, but once again, please refer to the daily short and medium term forecast to verify this information as that helps you plan and digest these longer term outlooks with the latest details to verify whether they are worth the paper they are written on. So stay tuned. My confidence in this forecast is MODERATE.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Not a whole lot of change to the signals from the modelling with the cooler bias persisting over the southwest and west with increased cloud cover and rainfall through the wet season for WA which has kicked off early. Over the east, with the persistent easterly winds via the positive SAM, the persistent easterly winds will help to keep day and nights warmer overall, with more rainfall about it won't be a baking heat, but rather what you are experiencing right now in the east. This is likely to be repeated time and time again through the next 3 weeks before we see a shift to a more westerly pattern into mid May. Tropics looking more humid and warmer than normal with a lingering wet season.

Key Points

These are covered off in the video at the top of the page.

Additional Key Points

As we move through this period, it is important to keep check on these issues, and I am adding a flood concern through the middle and latter part of the year.

Please ensure that you refer to the short and medium term forecasts and not rely on these forecasts as the absolute as these are guides and you cannot be specific for the longer term. I can assist in more tailored forecasting for you so enquire at karllijnders@weathermatters.org if you need more information and weather forecasts I can create for you.


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