Refer to the National Outlook posted here during last week, to access the data sets that underpin this forecast.

Rainfall for the next 6 weeks

% chance of exceeding rainfall for the period September 10-October 24th 2021

The rainfall chances are more biased the further east you are in the state, and less likely to exceed the rainfall for the period. That is NORMAL in these circumstances with the current climate drivers. The rainfall events have been typical for what you would see in a negative IOD phase where the moisture gathers over SA and then peaks over VIC and NSW and that is likely to continue, however it does not mean that one event cannot move through the state dropping one months worth of rainfall in one sitting. That is more likely to occur in this state during October.

Southeast SA

Eyre and Yorke Peninsula

Eastern Border


Temperatures for the next 6 weeks

% chance of exceeding temperatures for the period September 10-October 24th 2021

No real change to the outlook since last month with the next 6 weeks warmer than normal, marginally, overall for the coming period. The temperature roller coaster ride will continue for the region as we track through the next 3 weeks as we see the transition from winter frontal weather to spring time troughs and high pressure relocating south of the nation. The weather will warm up over the state during October, as to be expected with mid to high 30s temperatures possible over the northwest and north and there is no reason why this early season heat will not travel to the southern coastal areas.

Remember that Climate Outlooks are not perfect they should be used as a guide and know there are limitations in the computer modelling world to giving you an accurate picture for your local tile of land that far out. Hence why I use a percentage scale which is gives you an indication as to where the weather is taking us. Certainly the latest guide is to bring the wettest weather through SA, and peak it over the east and southeast of the nation BUT this can change!

Your state based forecasts coming up later on today, and take a look at that rainfall potential later in the week, will it shift east again!!?

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