CLIMATE REFRESHER - UPDATE ON TUESDAY'S INFORMATION.

Just a refresher on Tuesday's update regarding the climate outlook through to the middle of July.


Now you are likely to see more fluctuations in the updates ahead, with more white and brown shading showing up on the charts as we move through the Winter months, we areas along the east coast and north going into dry season.


However, with higher moisture levels spreading through the jet stream, we will see a lot of green on these charts over WA, spreading through the country and into the eastern inland and southeast.


You will see many agencies offering a lot of green on the charts with no context to the colours other than above average rainfall. But understand, that as we move through the coming weeks, there will be changes to your outlooks so stay up to date.


The higher chance of above average rainfall is expected over northwest, northern and southern parts of the country with the wild card systems, the jet stream cloud bands being drawn into cold fronts, as what we have seen in recent times.


In terms of temperatures, below average temperatures are likely to continue for much of this period, but again context, for southern areas, it is due to the onshore flow which can be cold at times (like we have seen this week and next week) and over inland areas, cloudy skies and areas of rain leading to well below average temperatures.


RAINFALL

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 17th of July 2022


South Australia and VIC - Generally leaning above average

A taste of Winter this week has led to many areas recording above average rainfall for the period with some places breaking records for May in terms of 24hr rainfall in SA. It is amazing how quickly things can turn. Now the bulk of the rainfall in the short term is likely to be found along frontal weather over southern areas. A break mid month and then we will see more rainfall emerge out of the jet stream across the interior through SA and then feed frontal weather meaning that the rainfall spreads throughout the southeast inland. Parts of the southeast of SA and southern and mountain Victoria will record seasonal to above seasonal rainfall through the period with a pretty wet and damp week coming up before a break, then more widespread rainfall to finish the month, that is the general rule for this region.

Southeast Inland - Dry season developing along the coast, wetter weather still west of the divide.

The elevated rainfall chances coming down a tad from last update, with a slow-moving high-pressure system looking to take up residence over the nation's south for the coming 10-14 days and that may mute the rainfall for a period over inland areas, but the coastal areas of Victoria and SA could see better rainfall, extending up over the southeast portion of the Great Dividing Range in persistent southwesterly winds. Keeping the leaning above average rainfall bias going through the food bowl to acknowledge the moisture over the interior west of the divide. Some higher chances of above average rainfall can be found over the northern border of NSW through southern QLD.

Southwest WA - Mixed signals makes forecasting tricky.

The signals depending on what model you use, suggests that conditions will be very damp of very dry, so for this update I am splitting the difference and going right down the middle for seasonal weather for the Ag Areas, but understand, the forecast confidence is rather low. The higher rainfall chances above normal could be found along the coast with frontal weather grinding along the coast leading to higher rainfall rates thanks to the elevated SSTs. The bulk of the jet stream moisture for now should bypass the Ag Areas to the north and east of the region for now, but that said, we could see moisture drawn into frontal weather crashing onshore which should pick up from mid-June onwards.

Eastern Inland - Below average rainfall possible along the coast, leaning above average inland.

Depending on the orientation of cloud bands (one of which is moving through today) the rainfall rates over the interior could fluctuate from run to run. But overall, the rainfall rates are coming down from the summer heights, but the persistence of rainfall will mean that many areas will see seasonal to above seasonal rainfall west of the divide, leading to saturation of catchments remaining in place.

Northwest WA - Excessive rainfall chances to continue.

As we see once again, the next 6 weeks is looking very damp over this region, as observed in the previous 6 weeks, there is the chance of further flooding, heavy rainfall developing from moisture streaming in from Indonesia over the state leading to not only above average rainfall but below average temperatures. Flooding is also a risk. The intensity of rainfall is expected to be highest along the coast.

Tropics - Unsettled with a high chance of above average rainfall to continue.

We have already seen many areas over the Top End and Cape York recording above average rainfall through May and June so far, with the scattered showers and storms to persist from time to time. There are now increasing chances of rain bands developing over parts of the NT and Cape York, thanks to deeper moisture sitting over elevated SSTs north of the nation. This will be the wild card to bringing higher rainfall through this period. Near seasonal south of Katherine to about Renner Springs in the NT and southeast to Mount Isa in QLD.

Central Australia - Jet stream cloud bands to bring above average rainfall chances.

The signals are a lot higher on some of the models and from some agencies as shown here, but I am going the conservative route for this period. Some chance we see further rainfall out of the northwest with multiple cloud bands throughout this time. We will see some light falls at times this weekend but better rainfall chances sweeping through from mid-month through to later this month into July. The real impacts of the IOD will be felt from mid July onwards through Spring.

TEMPERATURES

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 17th of July 2022


QLD - Generally seasonal for much of the state.

The colder bias is sitting over the western and southwestern areas of the state in relation to the cloud bands sweeping through the nation via the jet stream. Slight cooler bias over the Great Dividing Range, connected to the persistent signal from the models of a southwest flow moving through the eastern inland and further cloud cover. Warmer bias is way up north.

Eastern Inland - Generally Seasonal with a cooler bias weak.

The cold start to Winter may bring the impression of a cold and bitter season, but that is not likely with increasing moisture feeding into the jet stream and more rainfall events likely to emerge from the tropics as we go through the months ahead. For this period, it could well end up being the coldest period for Winter. The persistent southwesterly flow and cloud cover through the inland leading to cooler day time temperatures. Overnight frost risks may be mitigated throughout the season but appear most frequently through this part of Winter.

Southeast Inland - The cooler bias strengthens along coastal areas of VIC and SA.

The persistence of onshore winds over the next 2 weeks could see below average temperatures continue through to mid-month before we see some respite, but there is the chance we have more colder weather for the end of the month and leading into July via the next wave of low pressure, rainfall and colder westerly winds returning following a large high. Frosts may be most frequent through this period before we see more mitigation from the Indian Ocean Dipole leading to more cloudy periods overnight and rainfall chances keeping temperatures up as we move through July and August.

SA - The colder signal continues for northern inland areas and near seasonal most elsewhere.

The cooler bias running along the coast thanks to persistent onshore winds with showery periods. The interior running cooler than normal with persistent moisture streaming through the jet stream. The overnight temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for many areas, thanks to many periods of cloud and more humidity running through the nation. So watching that impact closely.

SWLD WA - Significant risk of colder than normal weather over the region

This is once again thanks to the higher-than-average rainfall and moisture forecast to impact the region leading to more cloud cover and less sunshine. The moisture streaming through from northwest to southeast meaning that the bulk of the cloud likely to stay north of the Ag Areas, but overall, with the persistent westerly flow and cloudy skies, below average temperatures are forecast for many areas. Overnight temperatures leading to frost may be mitigated by the cloud cover and rainfall coverage and frequency which is expected to be near seasonal through the region.

Central WA and through the Kimberly - Colder in the central areas but higher humidity up north.

The warmer than normal conditions over the northern tropics is thanks to the higher humidity values that in place, leading to the above average rainfall signal there. But the above average rainfall rates over central and interior parts are forecast to bring below average temperatures further south, some areas could see a cold 6 weeks, but this is cloud dependent, but we have seen in recent weeks that the below average temperatures have verified.

Central Australia - Cooler bias continues thanks to cloud cover.

The colder than normal values over the central interior is set to continue, as we have seen this week, the expanse and frequency of cloud cover will determine the intensity of the cold over this period. Many areas were up to 15C below normal in recent weeks, and we are likely to see more of it. Further north from Tennant Creek, conditions turn more humid and warmer than normal.

Tropics - Warmer and more humid than normal for many areas

The higher-than-average humidity values over the northern parts of the nation are forecast to continue across the NT and Cape York leading to above average rainfall chances. Some chance of many areas seeing a very interrupted dry season with not much love for a comfortable dry if you are living closer to the coast. Better dry season continues south of Newcastle Waters is expected.

Key Points

Not much change from Tuesday, with a larger update coming through next week. Watching the trends closely.

Additional Key Points

More on these topics coming up over the next 4-6 weeks in separate posts and information/videos. So, look out for them.


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