Updated: May 1

*Apolgies that the wrong video was attached to this post from Friday. This forecast will be refreshed on Tuesday. I blame the covid brain ;)*

This is the updated charts and information related to the Climate Picture for the coming 6 weeks as we look ahead to more active weather with all the ingredients in place for further severe weather to unfold across the country.

Lets take a look at the latest information with the video.


%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The wet signal continues for many areas and this is additional rainfall to come following the severe weather events of this week. This makes what is falling over parts of the north and northeast of the country even more remarkable with the rainfall forecasts from the modelling suggesting some areas could get rainfall at about the 95th percentile of what you would expect to see! This could cause flood problems for inland areas of QLD and NSW and delay the dry season proper for the tropics with the persistent humidity in place. Over southern parts, the modelling now shifting the rainfall distribution to a cool season setting with the westerly wind belt now appearing to move northwards across all modelling, with the elevated SSTs across the south of the nation assisting in the above average rainfall signal for large parts of Agricultural Australia. That will mean higher humidity values and weather that we have been experiencing in recent times will be repeated, with that cloudy, soupy airmass featuring ahead of frontal/trough/low pressure weather. Northwest cloud bands as we have been seeing this week will also be featuring with late season tropical waves still forecast to have a major influence through the jet stream when they appear. We are moving into a period where the Indian Ocean may also start to warm up ahead of the negative phase which could propel more moisture into the region from the north and west and with the lingering La Nina, we may see the warmer SSTs persist about the east and north resulting in moisture being propelled in from the easterly flow.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Not much change to the temperature spread, but I will mention that the weather is forecast to support the cooler than normal weather during the day time, but with the rainy and more humid outlook for many areas of the nation thanks to the above average SSTs, we are likely to see nights above normal overall. But that does not eliminate the risk of frost (as you will see next week) with that still appearing, but the ferocity of frost events may be mitigated by the higher rainfall and humidity that will feature. However, all it takes is one system to cause damage in terms of frost, so keep watching the short and medium term forecasts for more specific information relating to this now we are moving into the cooler season proper.

Key Points

Refer to video for more information

Additional Key Points

These are things to consider as we move through to the colder season as we move forward with further updates on the seasonal outlooks.

I am on the road today so I will have more information in a quick update this evening and the next broader update due on Saturday.

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