CLIMATE REFRESHER - LOOKING AT THE REMAINDER OF MAY AND MOST OF JUNE.

Just an update to the rainfall and temperature guide for the next 6 weeks as the latest data comes out, I like to be able to update you with any changes or tweaks to the guidance.


The data is worthy of being updated 2 times a week, not once a week or a fortnight because things can change rapidly, and it is important that people who rely on the weather are able to be part of the journey as to how and when things change.


Let's take a look - the next climate video will follow next week.


FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 27th of June 2022

The east continues to look wetter than normal with the continuation of the La Nina phase in the Pacific leading to the warmer than normal SSTs offshore the east coast being utlised via the onshore winds leading to more showery conditions, the wet season dragging on into June through QLD and NSW. There is a high chance of further inland rainfall events to develop as colder air from the south and west of the nation becomes embroiled with the moisture leading to further high impact rainfall events over areas that should be tending drier. The rainfall bias leaning above normal extends through much of inland QLD, NSW and back over northern SA and into WA where the jet stream cloud bands are set to increase in volume and production as the Indian Ocean Dipole begins to take shape. The rainfall likely to be more extensive north of the Ag Areas at this time but refer to the daily forecasting to see if this verifies. Overall, coastal areas in the SWLD should see the wettest weather but many areas should expect seasonal rainfall through this period, continuing a productive filling season thus far in the west. Over coastal SA and into western VIC, leaning with seasonal expectations, though some of the climate guidance suggest wetter weather, I want to see a major event stick over these areas delivering the heavier than normal rainfall before I can adjust the charts with higher confidence. I do own brown colours and they have appeared on the chart before, but this run of above average rainfall for this length of time is highly anomalous and we have to go back to the 50s to see something similar.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 27th of June 2022

The warmer bias continues for northern Australia with higher humidity values coupled with the warmer SSTs offshore leading to above average temperatures, this a signal that the IOD negative phase is developing through the period and will support above average temperatures here. The Indian Ocean being warmer than normal will spread more moisture through the jet stream which will then head southeast through WA and into the interior. The heavier impacts felt over in WA. The cloud cover, rainfall and the onshore flow with southwest to southerly winds, leading to colder conditions for much of this period with below aveage daytimes, but overnights may be on the warmer side thanks to the cloud cover and rainfall in the region. Over in the east, with the persistent onshore flow, the waning La Nina and the moisture being fed through the jet stream across the country from west to east, this will lead to more humid weather, with temperatures somewhat above normal, but understand that does not mean hot weather! The overnights certainly across much of the nation, above normal with a lower risk of the seasonal frost expectations being met through Ag Areas.

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median humidity for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 27th of June 2022

Moisture is expected to be excessive in pockets along the east coast, and via the jet stream over the northwest spreading southeast through the nation in upper-level northwest winds. This is where we are likely to see the wettest, most humid weather throughout the period, with the east also supporting warmer than normal weather (not hot but humid) but the impacts of the high moisture content will lead to below average temperatures in the east with the persistent rainfall and onshore winds driven up under the rainfall leading to cooler air mixing with the cloudy wet conditions here. The dry season looks to be on the humid side with interruption expected from the gorgeous hazy days of Summer with the chance of some lingering showers about. The rest of the nation look at variable odds, with the south looking at a more humid bias but seasonal conditions along the SA coast as well as the interior south of Katherine which is normal for this time of year.

More coming up in the short and medium term forecast this evening, and please avail yourself of that information daily, as it helps to place the lower confidence, less accurate longer term forecasts into perspective.