The pattern in the short and medium term still offers not a great deal of high confidence so anything that you are seeing here also carries a low confidence forecast, from the higher-than-normal rainfall potential sitting over the east and northeast of the nation to the below average rainfall chances for WA.
Temperature forecasts will also respond to the coverage of rainfall across the nation and therefore models diverge on this idea.
We are in that period of the yearly cycle where the climate guidance is not great! So, you may be seeing a lot of green from certain agencies on the charts and have been looking forward to the above average rainfall in some areas (not looking forward to rainfall in others) only to see a drier bias develop.
This is why I update the information twice a week with all the climate information you need to know about, to ensure you are keeping track of the changes.
Next video will be due on Tuesday morning.
WEATHER VIDEO - THIS IS FROM TUESDAY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE MISSED IT! REFRESH YOUR DRINK. NOT MUCH CHANGE APART FROM WA WHERE A DRIER SIGNAL HAS DEVELOPED.
RAINFALL - FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW THROUGH THE COMING 6 WEEKS.
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall from now until the 3rd of August 2022
The Food Bowl still moving through the driest period of the Winter with many areas scraping towards average rainfall expectations. The wild card systems to watch are over northern and northeast areas of the nation and this could spread south and southeast into the northern and east of the state which will see above average rainfall chances exceed 50% chance through this period, but it is also a low confidence forecast on placement of these anomalous weather events, so this forecast overall is volatile, just like the short and medium term, with one rainfall event likely to lead to above average rainfall in areas that are currently shaded in white. So, stay close to the short- and medium-term forecasts as they are more reliable.
SOUTHEAST INLAND AND VICTORIA
Noting that the negative SAM phase and marginal elevated SSTs are in combination to bring the above average rainfall smear to parts of VIC with that extending into parts of SA. Rainfall may be in the order of 10-30mm above normal for the period with near seasonal values most elsewhere at this time. Like NSW, the wild card will be the moisture drifting over the nation's east and northeast and whether that can be drawn southeast into VIC and eastern SA is a viable option on the table so be aware that this forecast carries a low confidence factoring in that risk.
Not a huge amount of change from the previous update, though have trimmed back the above average rainfall smear for the Ag Areas, because confidence is low and many of you need rainfall so let's not toy with you through this period. Watch the northern and northeast areas of the state in relation to the moisture pooling in the weeks ahead and whether this can be drawn southeast into troughs and fronts passing through. Drier bias about the Nullarbor is in response to the SAM being negative more than not through this period.
SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION
Despite some of the modelling suggesting a drier bias in the latest data, the guidance is sweeping from one extreme to the other. So, the low confidence continues, but I think it would be remiss for me not to factor in the elevated SSTs throughout the region leading to the higher-than-average rainfall attached to frontal weather. The bulk of the interior and Ag Areas are expected to see seasonal rainfall expectations at this time, but watch the wild card feature, being the moisture running through the jet stream.
I am noticing the moisture is now starting to reflect the elevated SSTs that are currently present in the region. More moisture can be seen drifting over northern Australia today in response to favorable upper-level winds. Now I do think we will see areas of mainly light rainfall developing at times through the region, could it be remarkable, probably not. This area does not need a lot of rainfall to see rainfall move well above the average so in that context, understand that green here does not mean the same as the green down south of further east. Rainfall should start to increase from the middle of July onwards at this stage and continue on through August and certainly September.
A closer look at the NT and I am lifting the rainfall chances higher than modelling only because of observed spread of moisture so it would be incorrect not to factor in the rainfall potential in the short and medium term over northern Australia and follow up into July and beyond as the seasons start to shift a little. Upper-level northwest to northerly winds will feature, more prominently with inland troughs and upper lows moving through central and southern Australia. Watch the system in the coming 10 days very closely to get a gauge as to where the season may be going.
Noting that the rainfall guide is muted through southern QLD, but this is to factor in the diverse range of possibility related to the first event on the board. Overall, the higher probability of rainfall being above the norm will be found the further north and east you travel through the state. Along the east coast, this is now moving into the traditional dry season and so be aware that you do not need a lot of rainfall here, to see green on the board.
The interior set to see some increased humidity coming down the pipe from northern and northwest Australia leading to a 55-60% chance of above average rainfall throughout the period and grading to seasonal values elsewhere. The confidence levels on the forecast are low. All areas of the nation need to pay attention to what is happening here throughout the period to see how active the Indian Ocean influence is and if the rainfall spread exceeds what is happening here on this current forecast, then, hang on for a wild ride coming into Spring and harvest!
TEMPERATURES - LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING CONTINUES
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures from now until the 7th of August 2022
Not a great deal of change, the cloud cover and persistent northwest to southwest flow and ridging with the jet stream aloft, leading to the cooler bias out west. Seasonal conditions most elsewhere.
Warmer weather over the northern parts of the nation connected to the elevated SSTs with that playing out with an interrupted dry season. Cooler bias continues further south down the coast with elevated cloud coverage and below average temperatures.
The temperatures are forecast to remain above average over large parts of northern Australia with the risk of higher humidity and this leading to rather unpleasant dry season conditions.
The eastern inland of the nation is forecast to be near seasonal for the period though a warmer bias connected to the tropical air that could be drawn south and southeast via upper-level winds could see conditions remain a feature for most of this period. The warmer air will reach the coast at times but modify as it heads eastwards and mixes with the southwesterly flow towards the east coast behind frontal weather passing over southern Australia.
Not a whole lot of change, the temperatures near seasonal for most areas with the chance of above average weather being experienced over the northwest of the state thanks to the warmer and more humid dry season being mixed down ahead of cold fronts over the southeast of the nation. This will see large fluctuations in temperatures as we have seen in recent weeks, with the cold start to June, this past week seeing well above average temperatures before the sharply fall later this weekend, that pattern will continue for the next 6 weeks. Generally seasonal weather for the period with cooler periods followed by that warmer air being drawn down ahead of cold fronts meaning that the overall period will be seasonal for many areas, give or take 0.5C.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA AND INTERIOR
Noting that the warmer bias continues over the southern NT and northeast SA and that warmer air will mix southwards at time. What is blocking the warmest of the air from filling into the state's south is the cooler bias that hangs over interior WA, but that won't last forever as we have the Indian Ocean Dipole likely to increase in strength, this warming the engine room over NW WA quicker than normal this year, on current guide.
Refer to the video for further information.
Additional Key Points
I am talking more about these points in the coming 2 weeks so stay tuned for those.
Next video update is due on Tuesday for the Climate Outlook. Hopefully we see the forecast confidence improve.