The weather in the east has been so overwhelmingly wet and persistently cooler than normal that it is hard to remember a warm dry spell for the coastal areas. Are we likely to see the shift in the coming weeks ahead?
Well the opposite can be said for the west, will we see a period of shifting conditions to allow the drier than normal weather for SWLD of WA to come to an end?
There are some signals in the short term climate drivers (the hustlers) that are suggesting we could see some areas that have been dry to get some beneficial rainfall and for some areas that have seen a years worth of rainfall in a few weeks, a chance to dry out.
Lets take a look
%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks
Rainfall signals for excessive falls to continue through to mid April are starting to ease now. There are still strong signals for widespread above average rainfall for the east coast of QLD and through NSW and into the coastal areas with the wet season for the east coast likely to be above average. But with the relaxation of the La Nina during this period, we will see more variability in the SAM phase and this will lead to more frontal weather appearing on the charts, each of which will bring dry air into the nation, helping to break up the persistent humidity and wet phase we have been enduring. So it is quite possible we have seen the peak of the wet phase across the nation in relation to La Nina. The MJO is forecast to roll through to the north of Australia. There is a <25% chance of another full monsoonal burst to impact Australia during the coming 6 weeks. The likely outcome will be increased thunderstorm activity in the cross equatorial easterly winds and gusty winds and heavy rainfall is likely. Late season cyclone activity are the wildcard systems at this time of year. There is a 45% chance of a cyclone developing north of the nation in the coming 2-3 weeks. Otherwise the rest of inland Australia through the southern Ag areas of WA, SA and into western VIC and NSW should see seasonal conditions. This will likely be a period of transition. Note, this is ECL season and there will be further severe weather events for the east coast of QLD and NSW into VIC. But the events stacking up one after the other after the other I would think is over for now.
%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks
A warming trend in the coming 2 weeks as the nation gets into drier more stable air as the sub tropical ridge moves north with the SAM being more negative and neutral, will see that perfect Autumn weather that everyone loves. The weather should be hottest in the west of the nation where the heat engine has been very active in recent weeks in the absence of long duration cloud bands and rainfall which can feature this time of year. The cooler bias continues for the east where the onshore winds and showers will feature more often than not, but there too, you will see a few drier days throughout this period with a west or northwest flow to appear occasionally as well. Once again, this is a period of transition throughout the nation and looking at the latest data, that looks to be on time this year.
Please refer to the video for more information on all these key areas and the climate data analysis and context to the forecast charts above.
I will have more details on all this talk of El Nino and then other agencies talking about La Nina. I get that there is a lot of desperation to be heard throughout the noise on social media and to be the first to "call it!" In real terms, no one cares, I like to give information that is practical and I will take a look at the latest data and where things are pointing. But the further out you go, the poorer the guidance.
Also Winter 2022 refresher coming up tomorrow as well, I am coding that latest data sets for you to get you the latest information so you can make informed choices that are right for you.