CLIMATE OUTLOOK - REMAINDER OF JUNE TO EARLY JULY.

ANALYSIS

As I have stated through the previous climate outlooks this week, that the weather will gradually shift once again to a wetter phase and that these drier bursts through early Winter are very normal and can last up to 3 weeks for inland areas.


With the ongoing moisture build up over the oceans north and west of Australia and the elevated SSTs strengthening through the coming 6 weeks, this will lead to elevated rainfall chances moving through the coming month or two, before kick into the wetter spell which will be the back half of July through to the end of November over Australia.


Let's take a look at the latest video analysis and forecast charts are below.


CLIMATE VIDEO - TUESDAY 14TH JUNE 2022

RAINFALL

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks from now through to the 28th of July 2022

We are now moving into a lower confidence period of long-range forecasting and the data sets coming through from run to run every 2-3 days are changing quite wildly which is expected but means that there is less reliability moving through to about late July onwards. There is a drier bias developing for some areas of the east (which is welcome) and a wetter bias for pockets of southern parts of the nation.

EASTERN INLAND - NSW.

Generally seasonal weather conditions are forecast to persist over the coming 4-6 weeks with the negative SAM leading to the drier air dammed over the interior at the moment, being drawn over the inland of the state. Moisture may increase over the northeast of the state and back into QLD with moisture surging southwards at times and being lifted by the weak upper troughs and jet stream winds leading to more rainfall chances north of the state and to the south with frontal weather. Not uncommon but against the climate drivers, it is a little drier than what was expected, but it is likely to shift through July. Forecast Confidence - Low.

SOUTHEAST AND VICTORIA

The leaning towards above average rainfall over the southeast is in response to the SAM remaining negative for the coming 2-3 weeks. There may be some drier weather back through inland NSW but marginally drier against the average. But for Victoria, the presence of the frontal weather passing through at a higher frequency may bring some moderate to heavy rainfall and snowfall accumulation if the winds veer more west then southwesterly across the state. Forecast Confidence - Moderate.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The next weeks looks generally seasonal for inland areas with the bulk of the wetter weather forecast to be found over the Southern Agricultural Aereas with frontal weather to feature more heavily over the coming 2-3 weeks with the SAM remaining negative. The inland areas may see above average rainfall IF the moisture supply up over northwest parts of the nation returns to above average thresholds. Forecast Confidence - Moderate.

NORTHERN TROPICS

Higher humidity flirting with the northern coastline looks to be drawn southwards into the northern and northeast tropics at times through this period. Though as mentioned, many areas through this region only need 5mm to be above the norm for the period so that is not a difficult thing to do. The interest for this period will be over eastern and northeast QLD where upper troughs may lean into the moisture leading to higher rainfall chances. Forecast confidence for this region is Moderate.

SOUTHWEST LAND DIVISION

The rainfall chances are still leaning towards seasonal for many areas and leaning above average along the west coast and points towards the southwest coast where SSTs are elevated, and this is leading to higher rainfall with frontal weather and onshore winds throughout the period. Near seasonal values expected further inland you go. Forecast confidence is Moderate.

NORTHWEST WA

The rainfall spread for the northwest have pared back to seasonal with a drier tongue of air sitting over the northwest interior for the coming 2-4 weeks as the season resets. Higher humidity over the northern areas and over the Gascoyne and points southwards will see a leaning towards above average rainfall through the period. The forecast confidence is rather low for this period.

TEMPERATURES

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks for now through to the 28th of July 2022

Temperatures are forecast to remain very much seasonal for many areas, with pockets of warmer weather forecast for areas of northern and northwest Australia and across the northeast as well. Cooler weather is possible about pockets of southern Australia as we see the persistent southwesterly and southerly flow expected under the frequent cold fronts for the remainder of June and into early July. That will send cooler and drier air throughout the nation.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The overall period should remain seasonal for SA with no strong overwhelming bias towards warmer or cooler conditions for the state against the climate drivers and the current forecast packages being released from international agencies.

VICTORIA AND NSW

The overall trend is for seasonal weather conditions for the southeast and eastern inland of the nation and despite the colder start to Winter, there is not a high signal for that to redevelop at this time with a trend to warmer air passing through the nation ahead of frontal weather, this causing more variability in the temperature spread over the region in the weeks ahead, but generally the outlook is seasonal for now.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The season looking generally seasonal with the colder bias easing over the northwest with the drier air leading to less cloud band potential forecast through this period as opposed to recent months. But that won't last for the remainder of Winter. The risk of damaging frosts is looking relatively low with SSTs elevated around the region mitigating the very cold dry airmass that we can be subjected to at this time of year.

NORTHERN TROPICS

The warmer than normal bias will continue for the northern areas with higher humidity likely to redevelop thanks to the elevated SSTs across the region. The overnights will remain above average too, and while there is a nice dry surge of air across the northern parts at the moment, the more humid air drifting around over the far northern areas will mix southwards during the weeks ahead.

NORTHEAST TROPICS

Similar to the northern areas, the elevated SSTs around the region is leading to higher than normal temperatures during the day time and night time periods. This will see the dry season interrupted by periods of humidity and rainfall potential.

EASTERN INLAND

Seasonal weather now looks more likely for this period with the colder bias that we have experienced, behind us for now. But that does not mean it won't be back, but the long duration cold outbreak with frosts right up to the subtropics looks more unlikely at this stage moving through the coming 4-6 weeks on the current guidance.

Key Points

More details found in the video at the top of the page.

Additional Key Points

These are the points that I am covering off in the coming weeks.

I will refresh this outlook again on Friday when the next lot of data sets pass through over the coming days and another video will be issued if necessary to capture anymore major shifts in the guidance.



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