Thanks for your patience regarding the extensive information you are used to as I recover from Covid. Here is the latest information for the remainder of Autumn and as we move into Winter.
% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks
The trends in the climate modelling suggests a very wet north, northeast, east and southeast. The weather trending more drier (if you can say that) over the central and western parts where rainfall frequency is likely to be less but when it rains, due to the elevated SSTs around the nation, it should be productive. In the east, under such guidance, the next 3-4 weeks look really quite wet. That is thanks to the late season rainfall over the northern and eastern tropics which could break some records if the systems allow. All that moisture will then head towards the south and southeast. We need a decent sized long wave trough to move through and break this pattern down during May, but that does not look likely until the second week of May. So from this weekend through to the second week of May, rainfall over the inland of QLD through northern NSW, eastern SA could be quite excessive with flooding possible. Moderate to heavy rainfall over much of the remainder of NSW, through much of VIC and into the ACT possible through this time. Showery weather keeps the wet weather going over the east coast. Over the west, we are seeing more frontal weather through the outlook period with widespread rainfall returning via the Indian Ocean influence, and by chance if we can get a tropical wave passing through into the Eastern Indian Ocean, which is rare, this may lead to more widespread rainfall for the currently drier areas of northwest WA and the western deserts. So the forecast is complex and conditional.
% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks
Not much change from Tuesday's update. We are looking at excessive rainfall for parts of eastern inland of the nation which will lead to below average day time temperatures but above average night time temperatures with excessive cloud and humidity continuing. The east and southeast coast could come through generally seasonal. To the west of the excessive rainfall through central and western parts of the nation, we are expected to see warmer weather than normal. That will be drawn down at times into the southwest, south and southeast ahead of the approaching westerly belt from the south. So there will be more springlike fluctuations for the south of the nation as we transition into the cooler season. Over the northern tropics, warmer and more humid conditions with no real signal for the dry season proper for this period over northern areas of the Top End and Cape York but the Kimberly should feel a bit better. The southwest of the nation is forecast to see more frontal weather through the period which could lead to cooler than normal weather for Ag Areas, but to the north of that zone above average temperatures should continue, setting up a strong thermal gradient and allowing the clash zone to utilise moisture from the jet stream and breeding northwest cloud bands.
Thank you for your patience, all going well I will have the next video climate update next Tuesday.
Additional Points to Consider
Thanks for your patience, all going well I will have the next climate video update next Tuesday
I will try and get a brief national outlook this afternoon, really quiet away from the northeast tropics through to about Sunday and then things start to shake and bake of QLD and NSW, possibly a fair chunk of eastern NT and SA early next week and then spreading throughout the southeast next week. The west, starting to feel those cold fronts!!