The latest climate data information is now in and we are seeing the signals for the wet weather to continue across the nation generally, with the highest chances once again playing out of the eastern inland of the country (thanks to the waning La Niña) and the Indian Ocean covered with quite a lot of moisture which is running into the jet stream leading to more above average rainfall potential for inland areas of WA.
The pattern does favour further areas of rain over wide areas, even clipping areas that are normally rather dry throughout the period, being dry season up north, these areas could see some further out of season rainfall.
I like to mention these anomalies as they certainly assist in being able to detect where certain longer and broader term climate drivers are at and they are forecast to be fuelling the wetter signal across many areas. The wetter the weather up north, generally the wetter the signal downstream through the south and east of the country.
We are also moving into the time of year where we will see the Indian Ocean transition from it’s non influential period of the Summer into the fuelling pattern where it starts to seed the jet stream and then from there begin to show itself with higher rainfall values across parts of western, central and southeastern areas of the country. So it will be telling to see how it performs against the guide.
Let's take a l
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall from now until the 1st of July 2022 - NEW! STATE BASED LOOK EVERY TUESDAY
Lots of rainfall in the past week over much of QLD and NSW through the ACT spilled into parts of VIC but stopped short of many areas of SA. The rainfall over SWLD of WA above average in scattered pockets but expressing the ongoing higher rainfall rates that have experienced over large sections of the state. The northern tropics also seeing some above average rainfall from very late season showers and thunderstorms. Now as we move into the coming 6 weeks, we are likely to see some elevated rainfall chances with the risk of some heavier falls about the northwest and west of the nation and continuing over the southeast and eastern inland. Pockets of SA remain at seasonal expectations but rainfall should return to the forecasts for all Ag Areas. The central and northern areas of the country is forecast to record above average humidity but unlikely to see this result in above average rainfall for now. This forecast reflects a shift in the overall seasonal conditions where the high pressure systems are forecast to move further north and the westerly wind belt should start to have a higher impact over the south and southeast of the country leading to more Wintry weather. The La Nina is forecast to wane through this period and I do think that will see less impact on the nation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to shift into negative mode leading to higher SSTs are higher moisture levels passing into the jet stream leading to higher rainfall chances spreading from northwest through to southeast across the nation. Overall, the pattern will begin to favour more rainfall over southern Australia and see decreasing falls over the eastern parts of the nation as we pass into the back half of June.
NSW - Rainfall to remain above average for most of the east but tapers off further west.
The moisture is expected to be running high through the period is forecast to feature during the coming 6 weeks over northern and eastern areas. Some chance of well above average rainfall in the coming 2 weeks with onshore winds, then we see the battle for the westerly winds to return, this helping to transport moisture out of the northwest of the country, leading to higher-than-average rainfall chances across the interior. This may be the driest period for many areas moving into Winter proper, given the wet signal strengthens through July onwards.
VIC - Rainfall to be somewhat above average over the Central Ranges but seasonal most elsewhere.
The higher rainfall chances will be associated with moisture running through the westerly wind belt and running over the elevated terrain in the unstable northwest flow over the western and central ranges. The weather over the southeast and far southwest is forecast to be near seasonal but if you are living in Gippsland, we could see drier weather than this if the northwest flow is forecast to be more present than what is being indicated.
QLD - Above rainfall for many areas continues into June.
The above average rainfall signal is forecast to continue for the remainder of May and kick into June with the warmer than normal waters over the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean to continue to drive higher moisture levels via easterly winds. The positive SAM phase that is set to feature more often than not is forecast to lead to more low pressure over the eastern inland of QLD supporting higher rainfall chances. The far west will see a lesser chance of above average rainfall, but the signal is not for below average rainfall through this coming 6 weeks across the state. Severe weather may also continue for the east, especially about the Central and SEQ coastal areas.
The risk of heavy rainfall totals, well above the average continues in the coming week and again into early June as the signals for further bursts of easterly winds combined with upper-level low pressure continues to be strong across modelling. This is response to the La Nina continuing to slowly wane and moisture being transported from the jet stream via the Indian Ocean.
SA - Wetter signal along the jet stream over the interior. Near Seasonal elsewhere.
We are moving into the wetter period for SA as we move into June and July, with the westerly winds to return. There is evidence already in the short term we will see the westerly winds return next week with a band of rain. Deeper moisture expected to be fed into the jet stream leading to above average rainfall signals across the interior and this will play more of a role beyond this forecast window. A good chance of at least one or two decent drops for the Ag Areas through this period. Fingers crossed.
WA - Mixed odds through Ag Areas
Depending upon the placement of the moisture feed over the interior and the relationship between the moisture and the cold fronts, this will determine the rainfall spread for the interior. There is reasonable chance there will be a gap over parts of the northern and eastern areas of the SWLD where rainfall comes in at seasonal values and higher than normal rainfall is likely further north and east. Then over the coastal areas of the SWLD, higher than normal rainfall is likely with the persistence of frontal weather and higher SSTs through the region leading to better rainfall potential moving through during the coming 6 weeks starting from this weekend.
Wetter looks for the northern areas, but remember, this region sees less than 10-15mm through the season over the north. The remarkable signal of well above and record rainfall chances continues through the Pilbara and Gascoyne, where further heavy rainfall bands are possible through the coming weeks, hinting at what is to come for the remainder of Winter and into Spring.
Tropics - Seasonal weather expected for the coming 6 weeks but wetter in the east.
Certainly looking seasonal for most of the region during the next 6 weeks. The region may be experiencing more humid conditions across the period though, with a disrupted dry season. Some patchy rainfall is possible through the region with the jet stream at times, especially from areas south of Elliot to the Alice but generally looking at the driest time of the year for the region before we see the impacts of the IOD build from July and August onwards.
The northeast tropics looking wetter through the coming 3 weeks, but conditions should begin to show signs of drying out, as a westerly wind regime begins to take over the pressure pattern and high pressure is forecast to move over the mainland, helping to pump drier air into the region. The warmer than normal waters over the Coral Sea are forecast to remain in place.
%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures from now until the 1st of July 2022
The temperature guide remains very much above average across northern Australia where the humidity values are forecast to be elevated. The temperatures over the region will be higher but the comfort levels are expected to not reflect the dry season that many are hoping for. This warmer air will stay contained north of the jet stream through this period with peeks of it coming into the Central interior, but the cooler and more humid air will override that via the westerly wind belt, so temperatures are expected to be near seasonal over southern and southeast Australia for the most part. Some chance that June could start out warmer for some areas, but temperatures should fall away through the first week of the new month. The weather over the western parts of the nation are forecast to be below average under persistent cloud cover and above average rainfall in the onshore flow.
NSW and VIC - Chance of warmer weather into June as the pattern shifts, but generally seasonal most elsewhere. Watching the frost risk closely but may be overridden by higher humidity and warmer nights
SA - Slight cooler bias running through the interior where the jet stream is present but generally seasonal weather most elsewhere with no strong bias for brutally cold or warm bias just yet.
QLD - The warmer bias over the north of the nation is in response to the more humid airmass in place. There may be some cooler weather over the far southwest, but this is conditional upon how much of the cloud cover from the interior gets involved in bringing more dark days with light rainfall. Most elsewhere, seasonal weather is expected but some of the temperatures along the coast could be warmer than normal if rainfall is less than what is forecast.
Tropics - The dry season will be hotter and more humid that normal, especially about the northern coastal areas of WA through the Top End and over Cape York. There may be warmer than normal weather through to about Ti Tree in the NT but cooler than normal weather may be observed nearer the Alice through to Uluru where cloud bands may begin to feature.
WA - Cool bias a near certainty for inland areas of the state.
The persistent cloud, rainfall and onshore flow will lead to the cooler bias through much of the state. The depth of cloud cover will determine whether this forecast verifies, but the signals are somewhat strong in the coming 2-3 weeks for well below average temperatures as a whole.
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Additional Key Points
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Plenty more to come on this information as we track through the week and this forecast will be refreshed on Friday morning with a quick wrap and a video if required to outline any significant changes.