CLIMATE OUTLOOK - AN UPDATE ON THE COMING 6 WEEKS.

This is a refreshed look at the weather coming into the next 6 weeks and to update information expressed on Tuesday looking at April and into early May.


We are starting to see the weather shifting now as through the week in the short and medium term forecasts, the seasonal shift is now underway on schedule and this is going to result in a gradual reduction in the wet weather and severe weather risks for a while post this weekend.


So this is very normal to see rainfall reducing over the north of the nation during this time, the moisture content across the nation also reducing and temperatures on the decline through the southern parts of the nation as the northward extension of the westerly wind belt and northern movement of high pressure releases more colder weather over Southern Australia.


An Autumn Break is likely through this period regardless of rainfall projections, there will be a shift increasing to the cooler season which will be denoted by a rain band and that should sweep the nation from west to east. It should involve a northwest cloud band as well and a strong westerly change for Southern Australia. This is most likely to develop during the coming 4 weeks.


Northern areas should move into a dry season conditions gradually with the first taste of that happening now, that indicates the seasonal shift is underway as well. The tropics are sometimes a good indicator for where the seasonal shift is at.


FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The above average rainfall anomalies across northern and eastern Australia is starting to come down as we move through the seasonal shift. In a time of transition, we see a number of dry weeks as the pressure pattern reorganises to a cooler season spread. This will mean some areas will see some of the driest weather in about 9 months. Tropical weather also is reducing in line with the shift to the dry season but there should still be another few tropical waves which will bring above average rainfall. The weather over the west will likely be wetter than normal with more moisture over the Indian Ocean being spread southeast and east across the nation. However, the combination with frontal weather approaching and troughs embedded in the flow pattern will mean it will run into deeper moisture levels with areas of rain likely to feature. Over the east coast, seasonal to above seasonal rainfall is expected but I think the intensity of rainfall is beginning to subside and further extreme flooding at this time is considered a low chance now through the north of NSW and southeast QLD. Finally, much of SA, VIC, western NSW, QLD and the interior will see prolonged dry and once again do not be alarmed, this is very normal for these areas as we move through the seasonal shift.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

The temperature guide has not changed all that much from Tuesday with a warmer bias setting up over much of the nation, especially through the coming 2-4 weeks as high pressure takes up residence throughout southern Australia. We should start to see this break down around Easter at the earliest of from ANZAC Day. This is where colder air should begin to approach and pass over southern parts of the nation with an Autumn Break. Northern areas, you should see lingering humidity despite the nice dry spell at the moment, so the transition to dry season will be drawn out and this could see temperatures remain above average. Cooler than average weather overall is expected for the southwest of WA and along the east coast, but the strength of the signals are not as strong as previous months.

Key Points

Refer to video for further information about these key points.

Additional Points.

Additional areas to think about as we move through the next 6 weeks and beyond.


This forecast will be updated again during Tuesday morning with fresh notes and a look deeper into May. I do think we will have a better handle on when this current dry spell forecast will begin to break down through April.

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