Lets take a look at the state based climate outlook for the coming 6 weeks as we track into the warmer and wetter time of year much of southern and eastern Australia.

You can review the data sets underpinning the forecasts here.

NSW - Rainfall Outlook Next 6 Weeks

% chance of exceeding rainfall for the coming 6 weeks from September 10-October 24th 2021.

Rainfall - A heightened chance of seasonal to above seasonal rainfall continuing for much of the state after many areas have recorded above average rainfall so far this year to date. The rainfall is expected to increase as the nation warms further, we have also seen that in the system that moved through last week and likely to see in the system sweeping the nation next week. The key, the tropics waking up early and remaining awake. Another key to this forecast verifying, the IOD remaining in a negative state and strengthening in the coming 6-8 weeks.


Central West

Southwest NSW

Southeast NSW

Northern Inland NSW

Temperature Outlook

% chance of exceeding temperatures for the coming 6 weeks from September 10-October 24th 2021.

Relatively seasonal weather for much of the state, though again there is a bias towards above average temperatures but marginally. The roller coaster ride in spring temperatures will continue. That will be a factor in creating more severe weather events sweeping the nation as we continue to see airmasses clash through.

Remember that climate outlooks are never 100% perfect and I have seen over my 25 years not 1 ever be perfect! These are used as a guide as to where the climate is heading. Warmer and wetter than normal is a fair forecast. The rainfall distribution will vary in line with the showers and thunderstorm outbreaks forecast from October onwards. People in the bush know this but I need to highlight this for those who seem to believe they see green and expect a guarantee of above average rainfall. It is not how works.

Short and medium term state based forecast due out this afternoon.

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