It is on time this year as well which is a nice change from previous years. It will mean that the rainfall and temperature profile will represent more of what we are used to at this time of year with windy weather developing over southern Australia and more frequent bursts of showers and storms via cold fronts.
With the Indian Ocean starting to warm, further moisture is forecast to increase throughout the atmosphere over the Basin and this leading to the jet stream transporting the moisture across the country from WA through the interior and into the southeast and east.
This may lead to above average rainfall chances across the country but also widespread below average temperatures across the country with the risk of some very cool conditions for interior parts where the cloud persists. So that will be interesting to watch.
As I have been advising many of you for the past year, this wet spell would have massive impacts of certain crop yields and Ag outcomes, and this has resulted in now the media picking up the issues around shortages of food etc.
What you need to know on the ground that the next 3-5 months are going to be difficult with further rainfall and persistent cloud cover, and it could rival what we have seen along the east coast in some locations, especially when we begin to warm up again into Spring with flooding a concern. I have covered this off in multiple posts.
Let's have a look at the latest video, forecast information below the video.
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks taking us through to the 7th of July 2022
The signals for rainfall over the southeast inland increasing, thanks to the shift into the westerly wind belt, more frequent frontal intrusions, moisture being drawn across the nation via the warmer than normal waters contributing to the higher moisture loads over the Indian Ocean and all of this is to converge over the southeast and southern interior. The only mitigating factor against the frontal weather taking over is in relation to the waning La Nina which could suppress activity, but for now it is looking more active in the short and medium term with westerly winds to dominate. The wild card will be the amount of moisture that gets drawn into the frontal passages from the northwest, at this time the idea is for the moisture to be somewhat decoupled from the frontal weather, which is at this time, seeing the heavy rainfall chances just easing back a little for inland areas for now.
The rainfall looks very encouraging for inland areas who need rainfall; however, many areas DO NOT need further rainfall. But the signals are for a wetter period than normal for areas mainly on and west of the divide through NSW which includes the ACT, thanks to the westerly wind belt returning and we are seeing the impacts increasing from the Indian Ocean leading to that above average moisture content being drawn in across the country from northwest to southeast and riding the northern flank of the frontal weather to the south. So more frequent rainfall likely to emerge. Drier weather signals developing for pockets of the coast as we move out of the wet season and into the drier season which takes place from some time in June or early July. Bit of a drier bias possible in the far southeast in the lee of the ranges to the west.
The rainfall signals over inland areas, particularly north of the divide looking healthy with a good chance of seasonal to above seasonal rainfall chances for the period. The southern and mountain areas are moving into the wetter times of year with the westerly wind belt taking over so the green is somewhat significant and while some modelling is showing a lot more than me, but I am watching the real time events to verify that data before I increase the chances of above average rainfall moving forward. With the prevailing wind direction turning into the west, this could dry out parts of Gippsland in lee of the Great Dividing Range which is to be expected at this time of year.
The rainfall is expected to be above average in many locations through SA, particularly for inland areas, thanks to the jet stream running through at pace, and persisting quite frequently through the period. Widespread light to moderate falls is forecast for inland, but this is falling over areas that are usually quite arid and do not record a lot of rainfall. So, the green can be misleading. For southern Ag areas, moving into the wettest time of year, this is looking more promising for areas that have been drier than normal for a while, and while some guidance suggests much wetter weather, I need to see it verify in real time before we increase the chances of above average rainfall into the future.
The rainfall is likely to be seasonal to above seasonal for many areas. The bulk of the higher rainfall chances sit over the arid zones so that green is somewhat misleading north of Whyalla where many places can go dry through this time. The bulk of the wet weather for the Ag Areas will be found via cold fronts sweeping through the state. We are seeing the first of those coming up from this weekend and into next week and that is likely to be repeated at normal frequency, with the elevated SSTs, showery periods will be more productive on current guide for those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime.
The state looking wetter than normal with a persistent jet stream running through the interior with widespread cloud and rainfall forecast through not only the coming week, but this repeating many times through the period. This is representing the Indian Ocean is waking up and starting to influence the rainfall spread throughout the west and the nation as a whole. The SWLD looking damp, how wet the weather will be, will come down to the interaction between the moisture and the frontal weather. At this time, I am predicting that the moisture more often than not, will be out of phase so the frontal weather will bring the bulk of the rainfall through the Ag Areas.
The weather is expected to follow the same script as recent weeks with a persistent jet stream running through the northern and central parts of the state with widespread inland rainfall, areas to the south of here could see lighter rainfall and scrape towards average, then the rainfall over the SWLD increasing as we have seen going through the filling season, with above average rainfall for many so far this May and that likely being replicated through June and into July. The rainfall over the southwest will come primarily from frontal weather with all indications that the frontal weather will return at force through June.
Noting the very high signal for above average rainfall about the Pilbara and Gascoyne thanks to the Indian Ocean propelling a lot more moisture into the atmosphere and the jet stream transporting this through the region with bands of rain developing, some locally heavy. After record May rainfall in the region, this looks to continue (whether it is record breaking remains to be seen) with the frontal weather starting to lift further north through the southern areas of the nation. The orientation of each cloud band will be different but the entry point over the blue zones looks to represent the highest chance of frequent impact over this period.
The tropics north remaining soupy with an interrupted dry season likely to continue for the coming 6 weeks with bursts of humidity, cloudy periods and showers from time to time. A higher chance of above average rainfall will run along the jet stream over the Barkly and points south with some moderate falls possible through the deserts to the south. This is not hard to achieve at this time of year, with some areas going nearly rain free through this time.
The northern tropics remain more soupy than normal with a persistent onshore flow and higher than average SSTs throughout the Coral Sea and that extending over the Gulf of Carpentaria as well. The rainfall bias being wetter than normal over the interior is largely thanks to the inland cloud bands running along the jet stream and north of the westerly wind belt over the southern parts of the country. These could bring widespread rainfall from time to time, exceeding the average in many (not all) locations in the green zones. The east coast will see a drier period compared to this year as a whole, with the westerly wind regime starting to take hold which is normal for this time of year.
Southern and Central QLD.
The rainfall orientation is starting to adopt that westerly wind regime more than seeing the dominance via easterly winds. I am tipping a drier spell to develop through this time for eastern areas, but that is in relative terms to what we have observed so far this year. With inland cloud bands running across the nation, we will likely see widespread light to moderate rainfall from time to time, bringing many areas above average rainfall, but not to the same extent that brought flooding through the warmer season, at this time.
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks through to July 7th, 2022.
The warmer bias sits over northern Australia with the elevated SSTs and higher humidity values thanks to the waning La Nina. The weather most elsewhere is fairly seasonal. The dry season is also looking to be interrupted over northern Australia, once again playing off the climate drivers throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Noting that a relatively season is expected for the east, with a cooler bias connected to the cloud band running across the nation from time to time leading to below average solar values and temperatures as a result. The warmer signal is concentrated over northern areas of the state and most elsewhere should see swinging temperatures, but overall seasonal weather.
The east seeing a reduction in that warmer signal with that warmer we are seeing now being replaced by a vigorous colder shift from early next week with that persisting for about a week. Some signals for cooler weather over the northwest with the frequent cloud cover running through the nation and a weak warmer signal for parts of the central areas of the state, overall, most areas coming through with seasonal conditions is a fair call. Severe frosts may develop next week following the cold outbreak and with the cold outbreak, we could see our first snowfalls of the season away from Alpine Areas.
Cooler conditions are forecast to run through much of the interior under the cloud bands running from west to east. Mostly seasonal elsewhere with temperatures set to move from well above average this week, to well below average next week. A sign of what the coming 6 weeks will feature for the state. Frost risks increasing during next week, where severe frost is possible for some.
SOUTHWEST WEST AUSTRALIA.
Not much change to the signal and going off the cooler than normal weather for the coming fortnight will lead to the overall period being cooler than normal. Interior parts could see near record values with the cooler signal aligned with cloudy skies. The cooler signal could lift northwards through coming updates. Frost risks through the period could begin from as early as this weekend with new high pressure following a strong surge of colder southerly winds behind a front Sunday and into early next week.
Not much change from the last update with the warmer bias continuing to hold strong over the region with the warmer than normal SSTs and the developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributing to the higher moisture levels and daytime and nighttime temperatures leading to the excessive values presented. Persistent cloud bands over the interior further south may see temperatures fall below average, and this cooler signal could lift north in coming updates.
Key Points - Refer to video for more information
Additional Points - These will be touched upon through the weeks ahead and should be considered when thinking about long term weather.
There are going to be a lot of people impacted heavily this year by weather, many have been already, and this could have great consequence on your overall yields and income streams, so make sure you stay across the weather information and ensure you have all the information moving forward. It is a volatile period and things change quickly, so make sure you check the short- and medium-term forecasts to verify this information going forward.