The weather pattern starting to shift as we move into the end of July, pretty much as I have outlined through this season, starting off with a bang, quiet few weeks and then slowly ramping up to have an active finish and then introduction into Spring.
That seems to be what we are seeing play out and of course that creates headaches for those wanting rainfall and normal temperatures and headaches for those who don't want rain and normal temperatures.
Let's see what we are looking at for the coming 6 weeks.
WEATHER VIDEO - CLIMATE OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 12TH JULY 2022
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks ending August 24th, 2022
SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA AND FOOD BOWL
Rainfall numbers are likely to increase through the weeks ahead and as mentioned at length throughout the year, through August, as the land begins to warm back up, warmer it gets, the more moisture the air can hold, and that air then transported via the jetstream. The eastern parts of NSW may pick up on higher-than-normal rainfall via the moisture being drawn south and southeast from the warmer waters from north of Australia and sitting through the Coral Sea. The rainfall is expected to increase further than this during September to December. There is also a decent chance of 1-2 major rainfall events leading to flooding issues.
The bulk of the region looks likely to sit under above average rainfall chances with the chances of higher moisture being drawn through the jet stream from the northwest and north of the nation where higher than average SSTs are in place. Also, the warmer than normal waters are forecast to persist over the east coast with the lingering impacts of the La Nina over the Pacific helping to keep the warmer waters in reach to add additional moisture to easterly winds for coastal areas. The rainfall won't be frequent, but when it rains, it will pour as we saw last week. 1-2 severe weather events are possible through this time.
Starting to see the moisture via the Indian Ocean running through the jet stream spreading through outback areas into the eastern inland. As always, in any period where we have an IOD in full force rather negative and or positive, the impacts cut a divide through SA. It is quite conceivable that the higher-than-average rainfall signals could be drawn further south and west through this period but is more likely that occurs from September through December for the state where the peak of the moisture is likely to be experienced. 1 severe weather event is possible throughout this period for the state.
The wetter signal is building through the state as we reach the peak of the wet season for the SWLD where the elevated SSTs offshore the region will locally impact the rainfall forecasts, leading to higher-than-average rainfall being achieved. Moisture should begin to spread through the jet stream and could bring light to moderate rainfall over the Pilbara and Gascoyne, but the higher impacts are forecast to impact areas further to the east. 2-3 severe weather events are possible over the SWLD. 0 at this stage elsewhere.
The northwest of the nation is expected to see generally seasonal conditions throughout the period with moisture that is forecast to float through but activating with low pressure over the central and eastern parts of the nation. Noting the rainfall anomalies over in Indonesia are increasing well above the norm through this period and will likely lead to rainfall spreading east over the NT and towards QLD and into the eastern inland.
Widespread moisture is expected to feature over the northern areas of the country with that activating into 1-2 areas of rainfall spreading down the spine of the jet stream into inland low pressure. It is highly likely that above average rainfall will likely unfold through the northeast and east of the country as a result with again, not much needing to fall through these areas to get above average rainfall but highlights the ongoing impacts of the elevated SSTs. 1 severe weather event through this region is possible but likely through QLD.
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks ending August 24th, 2022
Temperatures are likely to increase over the NT in response to the elevated SSTs and the impact of the IOD over the waters west and north of the nation. A cooler bias is likely to persist over the east of QLD where the chances of more cloud cover and rainfall may keep the temperatures a degree or two below normal. Most elsewhere should remain seasonal with a variation in temperatures as the Spring battle between the cold and warm air gets underway a little earlier than normal.
Seasonal conditions for most areas but the warmer than normal bias that is drifting over northern Australia is expected to filter southwards via northwesterly winds ahead of cold fronts and this warmer and more humid air will go on into SA and the eastern states lifting rainfall chances there. For the SWLD, the chances of slightly below average temperatures is likely to continue as is observed during the wet season, with higher SSTs offshore the SWLD leading to more cloud cover than normal in onshore winds, the more persistent those onshore winds will lead to more below average temperatures being observed.
Generally seasonal conditions expected through this time as we see variation in temperatures with frontal weather passing through which is somewhat typical for this time of year. Does that mean no cold outbreaks or early season heat? No, but there will be higher chances of wild fluctuations in temperatures as we go into August and that sets up a volatile Spring on the current guide.
The heat engine should start to heat up rather quickly through this period with the drier air with upper ridging to be in place over the coming week or two, but that will shift, and the airmass will likely to warm as a result of the increased solar hours and the sun drifting back towards the northern parts of the country. This area will fuel the warmer signal for the remainder of the nation as we move into early Spring, resulting in higher rainfall and cloud cover.
The video contains more information to all these key points.
Additional Points to Consider.
I am continuing to cover off these points as you have seen, and will continue to do so as I move through the weeks ahead.
More coming up on the medium-term weather throughout the week and this will be a key focus for many of our Agricultural Areas as we move through the remainder of July, many hanging out for decent rainfall!