The wet signal continues and the latest charts are available in the video below. Brief notes underneath as well for the main points I want you to take away from this post.


% chance of exceeding median rainfall - January 18th-March 2nd 2022

More notes in the video but the rainfall signals remain very much above average for large parts of the nation and there are a lot of colours cross the board, but the take away is the risk is highest the further north and east we go through the outlook period. The monsoon returning will bring cooler weather to northern Australia with more rainfall and cloud cover. The La Nina peaking during this period will result in a wet February for the east coast with that lingering into March. The tropical cyclone season should increase further and as we have seen with Tiffany and this next potential system coming in from the north over the next week, it will feed inland troughs and bring about widespread rainfall to more areas that may have missed out so far.

% chance of exceeding median temperatures - January 18th-March 2nd 2022

A cooler trend is likely to develop with the emergence of the monsoon over the north leading to more cloud cover and rainfall over the heat engine of Australia, which has been roasting in recent weeks. This will assist in bringing down the temperatures nationally. The weather over the east coast supportive of wet and cloudy weather, this spilling over the inland with more humidity, and below average temperatures continuing. It has been a humid and milder Summer for most over the south and east and this is likely to continue. The temperatures over the west will be warmer than normal for the first few weeks of this outlook but even there more influence from the monsoon is expected with more moisture being fed into troughs.

The key points from this video today.

More details on this product Friday with a larger update expected and more details about the La Nina, just waiting on some more data to share with you.