CLIMATE - MAY AND INTO JUNE WE GO. WILL THERE BE FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER?

It has been a very wet month for many areas of the nation and the rainfall continues to fall over large parts of the north, east, central and southeast areas in the short term. We have already seen a fast start to the wet season over the SWLD of WA with further rainfall ongoing today and tomorrow.


Many of the climate drivers are still signaling more wet, humid and somewhat warmer weather for many areas over northern Australia. Through the southern third, the weather reflecting more Spring like conditions with the volatility of conditions likely to continue into May and possibly even June!


Factors including the lingering La Nina in the ENSO, this contributing to more positive SAM events (easterly wind events across the country) and this leading to higher moisture being drawn through the continent. Now as we transition into the cooler season synoptic pattern, more colder air can be seen drawn through the southern parts of the country and the clash between airmasses with moisture being above average is leading to these heavy rainfall events.


This is forecast to continue.


Lets take a look at the latest details.

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall through the coming 6 weeks.

Well we have seen record rainfall once again over parts of QLD and SA in recent days with heavy falls leading to flooding through inland areas under low pressure and deep moisture. This is expected to feature through the eastern and northeastern inland of the nation as moisture lingering across the tropical north forecast to continue right through May. There is evidence that tropical waves/lows floating north and west of the country will pump moisture into a jet stream that will become wavy, in response to the northern movement of the westerly wind belt. Now as more frontal systems appear on the charts, we will see more northwest cloud bands travelling through the nation. So the chart shows a lot of green and blue, meaning more of the same. When it rains, expect it to be heavier than normal. The higher chances of above average rainfall does sit through QLD and NSW as well as through the tropics. The risk of above average rainfall drops somewhat west and northwest of the Goyder Line through SA into NSW. Along the southwest of the nation, persistent rainfall with frontal weather is forecast to deliver falls above the norm, thanks to warmer than normal waters sit off the west coast. It is looking volatile and this forecast does not forecast specific rainfall events so refer to the daily weather run down for more context to this chart. FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MODERATE ACROSS THE NATION.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

The way the synoptic pattern looks to establish itself across the country suggests we could see cooler than average conditions a near certainty over southwest areas of the country, thanks to the presence of a long wave trough parked over if not to the west of the SWLD pumping in frequent cloud, windy weather and showery periods. Ahead of the long wave trough over the south and southeast, the northwest to northeast flow may persist more often than not through the coming 4 weeks, leading to warmer, more humid and unsettled weather. The presence of deep moisture running over the northern tropics will keep days and nights warmer than normal but the cloud that forms from the moisture over the northern tropics will keep temperatures likely below average over inland areas of QLD. Coastal areas for the east and south, mainly seasonal weather for now.

Key Points

Refer to the video for further guidance on this.

I will have more to say on the Winter Outlook 2022 coming up next week and a peek into Spring 2022 as well when the next lot of data is coded through the next week (working on that behind the scenes and having discussions with various international agencies as well). The weather is looking volatile again for a wide area but refer to the short term forecasts daily to get more specifics on the weather moving forward.

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