The remainder of Summer looks pretty wet for the eastern and northern areas of the nation as spelled out in Climate Outlooks posted here 6 weeks ago so that is good to see the forecasts verifying as we move into March.
The short and medium term forecasts remain fairly complex and many moving pieces to deal with making it tricky to pin down the forecasts as a whole. But the idea is unchanged a wet end to Summer and start of Autumn is likely for many regions.
But as we track through the remainder of March and through to April, does the wet signal continue? Or does it end? Or does it become shared around through the rest of the nation?
Lets take a look
% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks
The wet signal continues overall unchanged through the outlook period for much of northern and eastern Australia. Wettest weather likely over the eastern seaboard as the wet season ramps up for the NSW and QLD coast. The above average rainfall likely to spill over the divide into the inland of NSW and QLD through the ACT and into VIC. The weather will remain monsoonal through the coming 2-3 weeks over northern Australia leading to above average late season rainfall. Cyclone activity will be the wild cards bringing the widespread rainfall for WA and SA through the remainder of the nation as well, so watch those features closely. Where they go will determine the rainfall spread, especially for those not getting as much in the coming 1-2 weeks which is WA and SA. The pattern should ease mid month before ramping up again during the lead into April. Further ahead, as the monsoonal weather moves further north during the early part of April and the build down resumes and the waning La Nina continues to ease, the transition to winter will see the high pressure south of the nation begin to move north so it is fairly reasonable to expect a drier period to emerge for inland areas and southern areas of the nation. East coastal areas of NSW and QLD will likely remain wet. The south of the nation will turn wet once we get the frontal weather back. More on that in the coming weeks.
% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks
Not much change from Friday, still looking cooler than normal over the east and north overall, with above average rainfall. The weather over the south and southwest leaning above average but not by much. The higher probability lay over WA and parts of interior SA and NT where ridging, the persistent easterly winds and dry air will dominate.
Refer to the video for further information on the key points below.
AND TALK OF EL NINO, LA NINA LATER IN THE YEAR - PREMATURE AND WAY TOO EARLY!
I did cover this off in the video, but I want to assure you there is no SKILL in being able to forecast definitively one way or the other beyond about 4 months at this time of year where the ENSO region is going. I have seen and read publications from some agencies in recent days that are suggesting El Nino is on the way.
Here is the data sets below that I like to use, and I am not seeing that on any of the data sets, nor am I seeing La Nina. A neutral forecast is fair. That is not fence sitting, that is responsible forecasting. Anything beyond 6 months is like gambling and hoping that you are right. That does not happen here and if there are any signals for La Nina or El Nino, like with the past 2 La Nina events, you will hear it here first. I was able to determine the La Nina last July for this current event, so that gives you an idea of how much water has to pass under the bridge before we get better guidance.
Euro Member Spread - ENSO region. Neutral.
More coming up in the state based forecasts this evening. It is a busy time across the nation weather wise and things are set to remain that way for a while, especially for eastern and northern areas of the nation.