We know that the end of January is looking wet and unsettled over the north, central and eastern parts of the nation with high humidity and persisting easterly winds, the monsoonal westerly winds over the north and a large area of low pressure over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.
That means wet. But does it continue into February and into early March?
With the La Nina peaking you would think so, but lets take a look at the data and my take on the coming period. Some areas will be not wanting any rainfall for a long while. This period will be peppered with severe weather events and flooding issues, you have been warned for months now, we are now seeing that come to fruition for many areas during this time.
% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next 6 weeks - January 21st-March
A very wet nation coming up. As mentioned in the video, across all data sets, many areas can expect above average rainfall and we are seeing that play out in the short term, but what we are seeing in the short term should be a heads up for people living in QLD, NSW/ACT and VIC, as this will be repeated! SA gives us a clue as to what is coming further east, so pay attention.
% chance of exceeding median temperature for the next 6 weeks - January 21st-March
No change to the guidance with a cooler nation coming up, with extensive cloud cover and high humidity, rainfall about, the peak of the heat of Summer is now behind us as a nation. We have the response to that heat with rainfall increasing, the monsoon arriving, nature's air conditioning coming in to settle those very hot temperatures down. It has been a cooler Summer as forecast over the east and this will continue. The weather out west, it has been very hot, but even here, you will start to see a reduction in those high temperatures.
For your benefit, these are the takeaway issues for the period. I will have a review of this on Sunday with further notes.
I will have an national evening update and a look at the severe weather in SA with a special Friday state based forecast for SA this afternoon.