CLIMATE - LATEST UPDATE ON THE COMING 6 WEEKS - DO WE STAY DRY OR DOES LA NINA WIN OUT!?

The latest data is in... lets take a look at the shifts in conditions.


There is a shift back to a wet signal building, I am leaning towards that solution but stopping short of going with the high risk of flooding and severe weather we saw back in December and January, but be sure to check back with the short and medium term forecasts in the coming days.


FORECAST

% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

A lot of green has come back on the charts since Tuesday, that is due to the moisture likely to return over the course of the next 2 weeks. Then from there through the remainder of the 6 weeks, it is looking wet. March, it is looking wet at this stage (but as mentioned in the Autumn outlook earlier this week, climate data is good at the time of issue and then the accuracy becomes less as we move away from date of issue - this is why you refer to the medium and short term forecasts). Overall the higher chance of exceeding the rainfall for the period is found over the interior and over the east coast where the climate drivers support heavier rainfall and cooler temperatures. The southern coastline is leaning seasonal with some areas above average with thunderstorm activity. Will review the flood potential developing next week over inland areas if the rainfall signals increase further.

% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

The temperatures should be near to below seasonal for larger areas of the east and extending through the southern and central interior, due to a higher chance of above average rainfall and widespread cloud cover - especially given the ongoing La Nina and now we are seeing agencies shifting the idea to a lingering La Nina (which I have been banging on about since December). The tropics under such a guide will lead to higher humidity and temperatures above average. This may be reflected in the southwest of the nation with persistent easterly winds (and if the SAM is positive the easterly winds will continue to persist).

Key Points

More information on all these points in the video - we are seeing a seasonal shift in the outlook period as well.

More coming up on this product next week and I will have a broader look at the climate drivers next week as well as the mid month data sets start to come through.

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