The latest data sets are out and really no change to the overall guidance. I am not seeing too much in the way of a drier signal across the nation as we move through the longer term, suggesting that the monsoonal weather and the peak of the La Nina is expected to play out through this time.

We will also be moving through the peak of the wet season up north and then the development of the east coast wet season in NSW and QLD, so these areas should be staying relatively wet, though some models are suggesting a very wet signal with the climate drivers supporting the wetter than normal weather.

Lets take a look

%chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The rainfall signal continues to run above average as we conclude Summer and commence Autumn. So the weather we have experienced and what we are experiencing right now will be replicated again and again as we end the season and kick off Autumn. So brace yourselves for further severe weather events across the nation, all areas! The more likelihoods of above average rainfall exist over the northern and eastern areas of the nation. We are yet to see the peak of the cyclone season as well which may lead to inland flooding. A tropical low over the coming week over inland NT and WA will give you an idea of what too will be replicated over the coming 6-12 weeks before we enter the cooler season. Overall, not much shift away from the wet bias.

%chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks.

Not much change in the overall trends relating to the cooler bias over inland areas. The excessive cloud over the past week with above average rainfall has brought below average temperatures, that too will be in place for another week before a shift to clearer skies resumes. The east coast also remaining very humid but below average in terms of temperatures with onshore winds continuing and the potential for above average rainfall gathers pace as we enter February. That will keep temperatures down. The west will also see a moderation in the high temperatures and mainly seasonal values most elsewhere. It can be baking in February and there will periods of heat, but more likely to be humid heat.

Key note for this update

Ensure to check back on Tuesday for the next update.

More to come this afternoon in the national evening update.

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