I know many of you have claimed it is drying out over parts of the inland and that is normal, even in La Nina times. But we are yet to see the peak of the wet phase for the east coast through the coming months, that will play out as above average rainfall chances for large parts of QLD, NSW and VIC.
The monsoon is likely to redevelop again during the next week and could be back again later in March into early April, prolonging the wet season, even though it has also been recently drier over the past 2 weeks.
Latest data paints an interesting picture for La Nina to return later in the year and we are getting more data over the coming days which I will share with you next week with my forecast and analysis.
For now an El Nino is looking less likely for now, which is a surprise to me, I was anticipating the ENSO returning El Nino, but the climate models are not playing ball on that.
So more on that next week.
Image - Latest CPC ENSO Outlook - Probability of Phase
Likely to see the La Nina last through to May 2022 on this guide, some models resolve it quicker but the mean of the model data has a robust lingering La Nina, which has been the advice since last year here. The double dip event sees the second year of La Nina linger longer. You can see that the neutral phase resumes for Winter in the Pacific so no real impact on Australia but the La Nina signal is not really totally waning throughout Winter into Spring, with some chance that we could get a triple dip La Nina.
More to come