CLIMATE - HARVEST OUTLOOK UPDATE

We have had a taste of what is to come - I have spoken about the potential of above average rainfall being biased over the east through Spring time, wetter as we go, with the risk of above average rainfall dropping off the further west you go through the country, and frustratingly for some in SA, that continues to tear hearts out as the east is flooded.


Rainfall bringing mixed blessings!


Lets take a look at the latest.

Rainfall Outlook - Next 6 Weeks - October 1-November 15 2021

%chance of exceeding median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The rainfall spread is unlikely to change from what we have observed during the past 4 weeks with the bias continuing over the east and across the north, with rainfall chances seeping south through the NT and QLD as the humidity and heat values continues to increase through October and into November. More muted chances over seasonal to above seasonal rainfall for Ag SA and the outback through to WA. This holds an equal chance of above/below average rainfall. Over the east, after above rainfall in September, October has started out with some areas already recording their monthly average. Remember the rule for the east and north, wetter as we go through Spring.

Temperature Outlook - Next 6 Weeks - October 1-November 15 2021

%chance of exceeding median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Temperature guide continues unchanged as well, which is for seasonal to somewhat below seasonal values for the eastern inland with a high chance of persistent rainfall. Seasonal conditions away from here for most of the south and central inland portions of the nation. For the SWLD, the cooler than average weather is a high chance to continue, this week remaining much cooler than normal, however there will be bursts of rainfall developing in the coming 4 weeks as the patterns shift. Over the north, the early build up continues to bring a high chance of above average temperatures and humidity values.

CLIMATE DRIVERS DASHBOARD

Heading into the coming 4-6 weeks we have the Indian Ocean unchanged, despite the BoM calling it a non event, well the evidence in previous rainfall events over the last 2 weeks and the impact over WA today is contrary to that. The SAM is positive at the moment but returning to neutral this weekend, hence the cold fronts returning but is likely to turn back positive through mid month. The most interesting driver is the ENSO, and I am awaiting more data coming in from the international climate agencies, but there are signals that a La Nina may be declared in the coming 4-6 weeks for the coming Summer. So that is the breaking news to watch in the next period, which will increase rainfall over much of the nation, and see forecasts adjust wetter IF the data verifies.


DATA - Head the the blog video for more information - but the same rule applies - wetter as we go through the month.


Euro Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation Next 6 Weeks - HIGH CHANCE

Euro Ensemble - Rainfall Anomalies Next 6 Weeks - HIGH CHANCE

CFS Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation Next 5 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

GFS Ensemble - Rainfall Anomalies Next 5 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

CMC Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation Next 4 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

CMC Ensemble - Rainfall Anomalies Next 4 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

TEMPERATURES

Euro Ensemble - Temperature Anomalies Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

GFS Ensemble - Temperature Anomalies Next 6 Weeks - HIGH CHANCE

CMC Ensemble - Temperature Anomalies Next 6 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

CFS Ensemble - Temperature Anomalies Next 6 Weeks - LOW CHANCE

This forecast will be updated again on Tuesday. Climate Drivers Update to come on Sunday.



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