Better data sets are coming out now for the Autumn period so lets take a look at the latest information. Notes on the outlook underneath the video.
Autumn Rainfall Outlook
% chance of exceeding median rainfall for Autumn 2022
As mentioned through the video, the overall confidence is growing for a wetter than average season across much of the nation, with that said, the higher chances exist over the northwest and the east coast where climate drivers currently in play, coupled with elevated SSTs will support more rainfall than usual during this time. The rest of the nation is leaning towards wetter than normal values, but the overall strength of those values has waned a little. Still, seasonal rainfall should be received for most during this time, but perhaps we can pencil in a few more drier spells than what we have seen recently, with some luck. That may ultimately reduce the flood risk. The lingering La Nina over in the Pacific may lead to a prolonged wet season for northern Australia. The east coast will see enhanced rainfall for the period with easterly winds feeding off above average SSTs to bring higher rainfall for longer duration. Wild cards to bring significant rainfall will be late season cyclone activity over northern Australia and the east coast low season off the southern QLD and NSW/VIC coastal areas between April and June.
Autumn Temperature Outlook
% chance of exceeding median temperatures for Autumn 2022
The cooler than average conditions over eastern Australia likely to continue, though I have contracted the cooler bias to on and east of the divide since the last update. Seasonal weather overall is expected for much of the nation with some areas leaning warmer than normal. The north of the nation with elevated humidity values with the build down over the course of April and into May. This will assist in keeping temperatures up. Otherwise, most elsewhere, seasonal conditions can be expected.
This is the take away from the data sets - more analysis can be found in the video. It is going to be a dynamic season - I think make the most of the quieter period in the coming few weeks in southern and eastern areas.
More coming up in the state based forecasts this evening, make sure you come back daily to cross check these larger updates. There is no skill in forecasting specific details so far in advance, I can break down the guidance, but where you get value is coming back daily morning and night and checking out the forecasts.