CLIMATE - AUGUST TO OCTOBER OUTLOOK 2022

ANALYSIS

The wet bias is still on track for the remainder of Winter and into Early Spring, but how much of an impact is forecast to occur across the nation as the cropping farmers start looking at the yields, the stock farmers look at the impact of the severe weather on their bottom line and the construction industry looks at how much work they can punch out in the warmer months?!


Well, here is the first broad look at the August to October 2022 outlook. Many people hoping for an excellent season given the developing national crisis being the cost of living causing many to get a little nervous. Offloading a good season's produce is paramount for many to ride these strong economic winds.


Currently the overview is supportive of the Indian Ocean Dipole developing further through August and into Spring with the event peaking around October before it wanes through November and resolves by December. The lag impacts could run into early Summer.


The ENSO region is likely to head into another La Niña at this time, that sits at a 65% chance at the moment, but more clarity comes on that from later July and the impact of the ENSO is more of a Summertime thing.


The climate hustler, the Southern Annular Mode will play a huge part in distributing the moisture across the nation, and if it stays generally more negative than positive, then we will see excessive rainfall developing through this period as the nation warms up, more dynamic ingredients are there for higher rainfall and volatility in temperatures as well as an elevated severe weather risk.


At this time, the outlook is not looking great for us to get through a clean season.


FORECAST VIDEO

AUGUST 2022

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for August 2022

Rainfall is expected to increase via the jet stream running from the northwest through to the southeast across the nation and will be heavier than what is shown here IF we see more frontal weather over the southern parts of the nation in relation to the SAM tending negative. So that is the wild card. But there will be more moisture, more cloud and more rainfall about in August following on from a generally seasonal to above seasonal July 2022. There may be some further above average rainfall over the northern and northeastern tropics with elevated SSTs over the northern and western waters expected to feature and continuing strengthening. Overall, the Winter becoming wetter as we go is the right solution based off current data sets.

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for August 2022

Temperatures are forecast to drop away after a relatively warm July with the moisture and warmer weather over much of northern Australia leading to higher cloud cover developing through the jet stream and the coverage and frequency of cloud cover will be determined by the SAM. If that is more negative through August, then a near constant cloud band over the interior extending back to the Indian Ocean is quite possible. The weather over the north of the nation highly likely to be above normal and pockets of the interior, depending on the cloud cover, will be cooler than normal and this will continue to refine as we get closer. The signals have been persistent on the cool June, warmer July, and cooler as we go August.

SEPTEMBER 2022

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for September 2022

The rainfall bias starts to strengthen over the eastern and southeastern inland of the nation in relation to the Indian Ocean Dipole peaking with the highest moisture content spreading through via the jet stream and feeding into low pressure and cold fronts still rotating through the south of the country. The weather over in the west and northwest should be closer to seasonal, with the moisture likely activating into areas of rainfall and heavy falls over SA, VIC, NSW and QLD. The north of the nation is also forecast to shift wetter than normal, with early onset rainfall forecast to appear in relation to the higher-than-normal moisture values across the northern and western waters.

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for September 2022

Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the eastern inland of the country in response to the higher-than-normal rainfall and cloud coverage that is being forecast. Once again in relation to the Indian Ocean Dipole being negative. This will see a conveyor belt of cloud cover persist over the central and eastern inland, with the cloud thinner over in the northwest and west of the nation leading to seasonal to above seasonal temperatures. Temperatures over the southeast and southern inland is forecast to be near seasonal with volatility in the temperatures expected to feature with the higher moisture loads and warmer air spreading south and meeting the colder outbreaks still surging north through the Southern Ocean. Above average temperatures is expected to feature over northern Australia with higher humidity expected.

OCTOBER 2022

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for October 2022

Weather is forecast to turn sharply wetter as all that moisture over northern, northwest and now developing via the easterly winds returning over QLD and NSW merges and pools over the central and eastern parts of the nation. There is a significant risk that many areas get well above average in terms of rainfall through this time with flooding possible for many in the east, possibly increasing from September through NSW, QLD and VIC. Severe weather events also likely to feature above normal through the east and southeast with a deeper moisture profile being involved with clashing air masses and low pressure. So the ingredient are there for widespread rainfall for many, including the tropics. Western areas should see seasonal rainfall with the bulk of the higher moisture expected to be found further east through the nation.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for October 2022

The cooler bias over the east extends into the central parts of the nation with thicker cloud cover, higher rainfall chances and this leading to below average temperatures featuring. Like last year, the weather pattern won’t support freezing weather, but more humid cool and wet weather which is a recipe for disease for a lot of crops ready for harvest. The warmer than normal bias over the west and northwest of the nation will continue to strengthen in response to the elevated SSTs and the peak of the Indian Ocean Dipole. This will see an early build up higher than normal rainfall, especially for the NT and northern WA.

KEY POINTS

Key Points - August 2022

Refer to video for further details and context.

Key Points - September 2022

Refer to video for further details and context.

Key Points - October 2022

Refer to video for further details and context.

Areas to Watch - Sea Surface Temperatures.

DATA SETS - Refer to the video for further context behind the forecasts above and where trends are heading for the Spring and early phase of Harvest preparations


Euro Seasonal - August Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - August Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CFS Seasonal - August Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - August Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - August Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CFS Seasonal - August Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - September Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - September Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CFS Seasonal - September Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - September Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - September Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CFS Seasonal - September Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - October Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - October Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - October Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - October Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - August to October Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - August to October Rainfall 2022

Refer to video for further information

Euro Seasonal - August to October Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

CANSIPS Seasonal - August to October Temperatures 2022

Refer to video for further information

Make sure you stay close to the forecasts in the short and medium term daily and the 6-week outlooks to see how this is shaping up, whether the wet signal moderates or the wet signal increases through the weeks ahead.

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