CLIMATE AND HARVEST - FRIDAY UPDATE. GET READY FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT A TRICKY 6-12 WEEKS

If you have been following for a while on Facebook before coming on board here in this new home - you would know that I have been saying for a long while, that the Spring was going to be wet. Now in saying that, no one can tell you ahead of time HOW wet and WHEN, but it is becoming clearer that October through December, in line with the International Climate Modelling is starting to verify/show up in the shorter term forecast models.


Now it comes down to who gets what and when and that is critical leading into Harvest. As many know out on their properties, the weather does not obey and sadly this year, while there is a good amount of crop to get off, there is also a large amount of rainfall to get through and this could pose some issues for the Spring and Summer months.

Rainfall Outlook - September 24-October 9 2021

%chance of exceeding the median rainfall over the coming 6 weeks

The rainfall signals are strengthening from last run with some very heavy falls being analysed in the coming 6 weeks over southeast and eastern inland sections of the nation. This would be supporting the peak of the IOD negative phase and the shift to the wettest time of year nationally anyway. The weather over the tropics turns sharply humid and build up likely to be quite brutal in the coming weeks. The wet phase likely to persist beyond this period. Parts of SA likely to see rainfall increasing during October and into November/December which is in line with climate expectations. Storm Season kicks off soon and the threat of severe weather developing rises through October which could also have consequences on crops, not just in QLD, but through remaining southern and western areas of the nation. Finally as mentioned, the current climate is expected to allow for rainfall to be more productive with above average moisture content in the atmosphere, as you will see play out over parts of NSW and VIC next week, a months worth of rain can fall with each larger scale system as they pass through the nation. The bias clearly over the east.

Temperature Outlook - September 24-November 8 2021

%chance of exceeding the median temperatures over the coming 6 weeks

No real change from the previous update but the forecast heat levels should be coming down over the northern and northeastern parts of the nation thanks to more rainfall coverage and cloud cover. The humidity as expected will be at repulsive levels. The heat levels across the nation as a whole not too bad, we can be baking in early Spring, so for eastern areas you will be spared, those closer to the Goyder line through SA will feel more heat and less rainfall as is expected, and the west should remain fairly seasonal for now.

DATA - You can find more in the VIDEO WRAP.


RAINFALL - A GENERAL WET BIAS FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATION.

Euro Ensemble 6 Week Rainfall Outlook (51 Members)

Euro Control 6 Week Rainfall Outlook (51 Members)

Rainfall Anomalies

CFS Ensemble 6 Week Rainfall Outlook

CFS Control 6 Week Rainfall Outlook

CMC Ensemble 4 Week Rainfall outlook (30 members)

Rainfall Anomalies

GFS Ensemble 4 Week Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Anomalies

TEMPERATURES - MIXED SIGNALS ACROSS THE MODEL SET.

Euro Ensemble 6 Week Temperature Outlook

CFS Ensemble 6 Week Temperature Outlook

CMC Ensemble 4 Week Temperature Outlook

GFS Ensemble 4 Week Temperature Outlook

And the Indian Ocean Dipole in Negative phase and the impacts that generally has - this is GENERAL RULE of thumb and every event is different

More coming up on Sunday with a state whip around looking at the coming 6 weeks.









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