The weather is settled for the coming week, well picked by the modelling of the shift away from the very wet and thundery signal with widespread flooding and severe thunderstorms. This is expected to continue for the coming week as mentioned in the short and medium term forecasts.

But does it last? Well lets take a look at the remainder of February and into March to see what the end of Summer and the beginning of Autumn looks like.


% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

There has been quite a shift away from heavy rainfall nationally, which is normal for February, as we do move into the driest month of the year. The east coast with persistent onshore winds and the northwest of the nation with the monsoonal influence, will see the higher chances of above average rainfall. While the rest of the nation is looking drier, it is foolish to switch it to drier than normal for everywhere, given that it takes one system from the northwest through to the southeast of the nation to bring above average rainfall, so leaving the chances of above and below average rainfall at a 50/50 chance is not uncommon, but reflects that the level uncertainty is higher in these areas painted in white. But this is the first update in a long time we have seen a drier shift, so perhaps a shift in the climate drivers is underway which will be reviewed in the Autumn Outlook tomorrow and in the next update on Friday on this particular product.

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Warmer signal building for southern and southwest areas of the nation under ridging, that will be in place for the coming 2 weeks but may just be long enough to shift the bias above normal through these areas overall. The east coast has been cooler than normal most of Summer and this will continue for the majority of the period through to early Autumn. The wet signal increases as we move into Autumn and this will mean more cloud and cooler temperatures. Parts of northern Australia could be warmer than normal under a prolonged monsoonal break period but IF the monsoon does return during the end of the month, it may moderate temperatures once again and bring another few weeks of below average temperatures for northwest and central Australia.

Key Points and Slides

More details to come on this product on Friday and do not forget, the Autumn Outlook Update is due out tomorrow lunchtime so look out for that!

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