CLIMATE - A REFRESHED LOOK AT APRIL AND INTO MAY. WILL WE SEE ANY FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER??

The past month has been just wild for parts of the east and now over the west getting involved on the severe weather front being belted by storms, some containing large hail.


This week and likely the next 2 weeks really, the nation should see a reduction in the high amplitude weather. This is very normal for the nation as we track into Autumn proper, which is known for it's still mild to warm and sunny days with light winds. Not so great with smoke haze with hazard reduction burns in the east but conditions look great for property owners and orginsations to get out and start doing the maintenance work.


Hints of the wet season winding down too, this is after such a strong signal for widespread above average rainfall for northern areas, the fickle nature of tropical weather in the shoulder seasons. But will continue to watch the small scale as things can swing back just as fast.


For those needing rainfall and a shift to cooler weather, lets see what the latest 6 weeks hold in the video below.

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks

The latest guidance as mentioned on Friday and in previous updates was based upon the spread of tropical moisture over northern Australia and whether we would see a deepening tropical low or cyclone run through the northern NT and into the Kimberly. Now we see that is unlikely to have a major impact in the short term so this has seen the guidance pull back on the widespread above average rainfall (hence my hesitation on going all in on those above average anomalies across the country). We look to be moving into a seasonal period of rainfall expectations through much of the nation though the SW of WA and parts of inland WA could see higher rainfall than normal through April and especially into early May with higher SSTs offshore the west of the nation leading to elevated moisture levels via the jet stream. The east coast should still see above average rainfall via the onshore wind flow thanks to SSTs being above normal for this time of year. I do think the impact of La Nina, though slow to resolve in the Pacific Ocean, will lessen through this time period and a gradual decrease in the severe weather risks via flooding looks to take place which is good news. Seasonal rainfall expectations elsewhere means that much of the south, southeast and eastern inland of the nation will be drier than what we have seen in recent months representing the shift into the cooler season. It does not mean it will be rain free or below average for the whole region, I am just factoring in the seasonal shift, the shift in the climate drivers and now an expectation of drier spells appearing in the forecast packages moving through April and into May. I do think we see a wetter end to May and start to Winter for southern Australia.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks

Temperatures are remaining fairly seasonal for much of the nation, though some areas could be leaning above average through the coming 2-3 weeks, especially for SA, VIC and western NSW and QLD. Then a gradual easing in the temperatures over these areas with an increase in frontal weather, and cooler air being propelled northwards via the westerly wind belt moving into a more typical late Autumn and early Winter pattern. The northern tropics, warmer than normal with lingering higher humidity, though we are seeing a drier airmass move northwards during the short term, this will be replaced with the humidity returning through much of April and likely to see another burst of higher humidity connected to the final burst of tropical weather north of the nation. Otherwise, the southwest of the nation could be below average overall with a cooler shift occurring earlier, well that is the current guide and I am inclined to go with that. This is a great time to point out why it is important to refresh these forecasts frequently and I will get to stage down the track where these will become daily outlooks for 6-12 weeks because the data can shift around and a week is a long time in weather information.

Key Points

Refer to video for further information. Thank you. It helps with the context of this information.

Additional Points.

Consider these points as we move through the transition from the warmer season weather to the cooler season weather. This will mean rainfall and temperature distribution will shift either rapidly or slowly, that specific information remains to be seen.

More on this product on Friday and I will have another look at the Indian Ocean in the coming days to see where that is going. Starting to get some interesting information coming through that I will collate for you.



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