CLIMATE - A REFRESH LOOK AT APRIL AND INTO EARLY MAY.

I covered off a lot of the main points on Tuesday but lets see where the latest data sets are currently standing this morning and refresh the information for you over the coming 6 weeks.


We have got a very active 7-10 days rainfall wise and temperatures below average over a large area of western and northern Australia. The east also remaining fairly damp with onshore winds and rainfall in the short term, leading to above average rainfall to continue in areas that do not need it.


But areas that are dry are crying out for rainfall and that does include eastern SA, western VIC, parts of Central QLD and Northwest NSW. Are we likely to see conditions shift in the coming 6 weeks?


Lets take a look

FORECAST

% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The wet signal continues for large parts of the east, through the northern tropics and now introducing that wetter than average look for WA. The weather shifting and that is now meaning the rainfall distribution is following that seasonal shift. So WA as expected likely to see an early start to the wet season with above average rainfall. For the southeast and southern parts of the nation, looking still a neutral odds (50% chance) of seeing above or below average rainfall which reflects the season we are in. Long dry spells in stagnant pressure patterns through mid Autumn is nothing unusual with the drier air trapped over the region in the short term and that could be repeated 1-2 times through the period ahead. The wet season in the east is expected to be above average with the signals for further flooding moderate to high on and east of the divide. Late season cyclone activity also remaining high over the northern and northwest of the nation with that moisture profile spreading southeast through the jet stream and into the inland areas of the WA and maybe SA. Otherwise we are looking at the La Nina hanging on for dear life and influencing the rainfall in the coming 4 weeks, connected to the northern tropics and over the eastern parts of QLD and NSW.

% chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Not much change from the previous update. Cooler conditions are forecast for parts of WA with extra rainfall and cloud cover. Over the northern tropics also looking below average with the increased rainfall and cloud cover. The weather over the southeast and south looking above average with the persistent high pressure forecast nearby SA, VIC and western NSW and QLD This will hopefully break as we move through May when a more mobile pressure pattern develops.

Key Points

Refer to video for more information related to these points.

Other Key Points worth Considering.

Other areas to keep in the back of your mind while reviewing this information

Plenty of information coming up in the week ahead including your state based climate outlooks due Sunday which will be really telling for many of our Ag Areas.

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