We are moving steadily through March and it has been a very wet start to Autumn for many areas over the north and east. But in recent times, conditions have begun to ease as the high pressure ridge sits further north and drier air begins to sink over the country leading to more suppressed rainfall opportunities.

Moving into the coming 6 weeks we should see an attempt or two of the Autumn Break sweeping the nation with the longer term temperature and rainfall guide factoring this in, and so now it becomes a matter of not IF but WHEN.

Northern areas of the nation will remain damp and continue the above average rainfall for the Top End and parts of the Kimberly, with FNQ catching up to the rest of the tropics with heavier rainfall topping up the low totals across FNQ.

Lets take a look


%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks

Rainfall likely to remain above average for the end of the month into April for northern Australia as we start to transition into dry season. But with the MJO in the region we are likely to see a wet few weeks for northern tropical areas, some areas of FNQ would benefit from this with some areas struggling through Summer. The wet signal continues for large areas of the nation, but the devil will be in the detail with each system that passes through, especially as we see the transition from the Summer style distribution of rainfall and move into the cooler season distribution of rainfall. The battle ground that sets up as the airmass begins to change over the nation leads to the development of northwest cloud bands. These should start to become a feature through the coming weeks and this is where the models are starting to increase the rainfall chances through the western and southern parts of the nation and the interior as well from inland WA, through SA and into the eastern inland. Still expecting a few more heavy rainfall events in the coming period for the east coast, likely seeing then batch of wet days to come at the end of the month for eastern NSW and QLD with the positive SAM phase and then more variability in the SAM is expected. So we are still seeing this enhanced rainfall signal, but I just want to make it clear that with the transition of the seasons, we can see some whopping weather events unfold which lifts the risk of severe weather and these particular outlooks do not pick those events. Refer to the short and medium term forecasting for those details daily.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks

Temperatures are expected to be rather elevated for the next 1-2 weeks for large areas of the nation as we see high pressure dominating with a humid airmass lingering over the eastern and southeast inland and obviously over the tropics. The drier air is starting to appear south of the nation with the fast flow pattern and there is some evidence that could be propelled north at some stage as we move through April dropping temperatures and also contracting that Summer tropical airmass further north through the country. That process should begin to take place in the coming fortnight and then become more of a feature through towards Easter and come early May, the humid and tropical airmass should be lingering over the far northern tropics with a seasonal airmass covering the nation. Temperatures will moderate as we move through the next 4 weeks, so enjoy the warmth while you can. With the above average rainfall, this will lend many areas over the north and east to be below average overall. If we see enhanced cloud band activity emerge in the coming weeks, this could also moderate temperatures much more quickly than what is advertised. So this forecast is rather conditional as is usual in these shoulder seasons.

Key Points

Refer to the video for more information on these issues raised today. Not a whole lot of change from previous updates, but we are starting to see the Autumn Break conditions appearing in the medium to long term.

Other areas to consider - really important as we move through the next 2 months of weather. It is a time of transition and we can sometimes get significant weather events across the nation.

More on this product coming up on Friday. Make sure you avail yourself of the short and medium term forecasts to cross check and verify this forecast moving forward. Old weather information is bad information in this game so stay up to date! That is the best way to get the most out of this service!

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