The next few weeks are looking volatile for large sections of the country, but will it continue through to mid-June, and do we see it extend to other areas of the nation, areas such as SA, VIC and parts of WA?
Certainly, some strong signals that is for sure, in the short and medium term, for widespread above average rainfall, which has been well picked by climate models months ago. So what are the chances of further widespread rainfall unfolding during the coming few weeks taking us through the remainder of Autumn and into Winter 2022?
Lets take a look
%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks
The continuation of the above average rainfall signals continues for large portions of the nation. The lingering La Nina, the elevated SSTs right around the nation, the building negative IOD south of Indonesia through June will start to emerge, the positive SAM phase to keep the moisture streaming in via the easterly winds will also keep the east wet. There are so many drivers that are pointing to wet weather and above average rainfall chances are remaining elevated. The overall pattern is largely unchanged and is likely to be unchanged through the coming 6 weeks. Severe weather relating to flash flooding and riverine flooding for pockets of the nation is elevated and we will see that play out this week coming with yet another upper low over the northeast of the country. This pattern has been repeated time and time again and there is no reason why we do not see this happen again before we get to mid June. East coast low season continues for NSW and QLD and while these charts and forecast data sets do not see that specificity, that is also a risk which could enhance the rainfall further than what is being forecast here. Finally, watch the southwest of the nation where widespread rainfall is possible regularly with frontal weather persisting through the region leading to cloudy wet and windy weather and an above average start to the wet season down there too. SA and western VIC sits in the swing zone where rainfall events will continue to swing around this area, however rainfall should start to increase as we move through June for these areas.
%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks
Not much change from Tuesday with the cooler bias persisting through large areas of the west, warmer bias over large areas of the north with above average temperatures continuing with the above average humidity. The lingering moisture a symptom of the La Nina continuing. The seasonal weather for most elsewhere is likely but as we have been experiencing, this does not mean we do not get cold outbreaks, it just means that the cold dry outbreaks are below average in number and the wet and more humid cooler weather is likely to offset this across the nation.
The next extended update on the 6 week outlook taking us through the back half of May and looking at June 2022 will come on Tuesday. I am travelling today. The next climate video comes on Tuesday.