After a cold and showery day through southern and mountain VIC, things are set to dry out as a low pressure system begins to move away, and a high pressure system starts to move in from the west with a stable airmass in place for a number of days.

The quieter week will be welcome for some to dry out after what has been quite a wet 4-6 weeks but obviously the areas over the northwest bordering SA and NSW still needs a decent drop of rainfall.

GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall distribution - Valid the next 16 days.

Note the low pressure system evolves to the north and east of Victoria, but part of the trough may bring a burst of rainfall through the Northern Country and Northeast later Friday into Saturday before the potential for rainfall increases over Gippsland during Saturday before easing Sunday. Then the frontal barrage begins over the southern parts of the nation, plunging the south and west into gales, showery weather and a very cold airmass.

Sadly, the wait will continue for parts of northwest VIC with another trough likely to scoot through to the east of that region and bring rainfall back over northeast and eastern VIC, that trough amplifying as it encounters deeper moisture levels over the inland of NSW.

A low may form on that trough as it moves quickly to the southeast during Saturday and into Sunday bringing a heavier burst of rainfall through the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC. But the risk of that is still only moderate at the moment.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Rainfall spreads over NSW later this week then contracts to the southeast and quickly clears. Then the rainfall will be confined to areas exposed to an unstable winter westerly wind regime, so I suspect number will then contract to over VIC and southern NSW, some of the heavier falls will be about southwest VIC and the Great Dividing Range, just outside of this chart.

A closer look at rainfall around Melbourne and the surrounding region.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Rainfall will be mainly to the north and east of Melbourne with the system coming through NSW for now, but it will return to the region later in the weekend coming or the following week, day 8-10 looking wetter with cold fronts returning and numbers will increase as we go through this week.

After that system moves away, a fairly broad unstable westerly flow begins to stregnthen over southern Australia bringing more traditional winter weather, with fast moving fronts absorbed into the westerly flow, brings bursts of strong winds and showery weather to the southern parts of nation.

GFS 18z run - Upper level pattern at 18000ft for the coming 2 weeks.

It doesn't get more winterlike than this pattern unfolding.

Each front will bring the best chance of rainfall statewide, but between fronts, the southern and mountain areas stay wet.

Snowfalls look to increase as well as we enter mid month, some modelling getting quite excited about totals for all Alpine resorts. Conditions staying wintry and wet as we track through to the 19-20th of the month.

Snowfalls for the coming 2 weeks - GFS 18z run Valid Sunday 4th of July 2021.

Those snowfalls would indicate a lot of precipitation at lower elevations during this period so flooding could be a concern mid month for inland areas of southern NSW and northeast VIC.

And temperatures will be hitting very cold values through mid month with the temperature forecasts suggesting widespread below average temperatures for the south of the nation, highly likely.

Temperature Forecast for July 12-19th 2021.

Significant risk of below average temperatures with a deep winter phase over the nation. Victoria right in the middle of that cold signal.

So the active weather is expected to ramp up after a quieter week, but now is the time to prepare for the weather shifting mid month, and the signals are not changing.

More details to come this week.

32 views0 comments