CLEARING SKIES FOR VIC TONIGHT WITH A COLD FROST START THURSDAY - THEN WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS.

A clearing sky over much of the state this afternoon with a weak ridge passing through tonight and leaving by morning, but will bring a period of stable weather. The clear skies coupled with the cold airmass will lead to a chance of severe frost over the north central and northeast areas of the state.


Frost Forecast Thursday Morning.

Freeze Forecast Thursday Morning

A freeze is possible about the far east for areas bordering with NSW.


During Thursday we are watching the cloud and areas of rain that will be over much of SA as that continues to move eastwards. Some chance that will clip the northwest of the state and perhaps spread some lighter rainfall along the Murray. The most consistent rainfall will likely be over NSW.


Then we have frontal weather to deal with and these still look active, likely to bring strong and gusty northwest to westerly winds with rounds of showers and coastal thunder for parts of the state, mainly over the southwest and ranges. Some moderate to heavy falls of snow also possible during the weekend over windward facing resorts.


Next week a ridge to the north could lead to a drier picture for Monday and Tuesday as the new long wave trough reorganises off SA and over WA.


Lets look at modelling this evening.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern is largely unchanged with the fast flow westerly wind regime to take control for the best part of 2 weeks. The low that passes through the east, will move through to the north of VIC, but there are patchy falls being analysed for the Mallee and Wimmera during tomorrow afternoon into Friday. We then focus on the frontal weather over the weekend which looks to bring severe weather, damaging winds and farmers and grazing issues for the region. Next week we may get away with a dry day on Monday but more fronts approach Tuesday and you guessed it, back to wet and windy.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

This shows that the rainfall is expected to remain connected to the westerly wind belt and there could be some moderate to heavy falls over the coming 10 days and more rainfall into the medium term. So a wet and windy end to July and start of August looks likely.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very similar spread in the Euro, noting the low moves to our north during Thursday and Friday but a pair of strong fronts with cold air bringing a wintry airmass with snowfalls down to 400m during the weekend with moderate to heavy snowfalls for the Alpine areas. Then we will see moderation early in the week before the rainfall and windy weather returns probably from Tuesday in the west and then more widespread from this time next week. More widespread rainfall and gusty conditions expected in the medium term.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall again reflects the wintry westerly regime and that will persist for the next 10 days bar that weak ridge to the northeast early in the new week, which will bring more stable air to the inland areas and contract the showers back to the southwest coast. Then the rainfall rolls in again with a weak front sliding downstream in the northwest flow, ahead of more rainfall that develops with the larger wave sitting over WA and SA mid to late next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged from his morning, but we will see the numbers bounce around in the coming days as systems come and new ones approach, but for the next 2 weeks at least, there is no extended dry period for this part of the world and so the pattern continues unchanged with the fast flow westerly wind regime, embedded frontal passages and this means areas that are exposed to the westerly wind regime will be most likely to pick up the best rainfall. Inland areas will get patchier falls but should total 10-20mm in the north and atleast 25mm in the south.

More weather details to come with a more detailed look at the next 2 weeks tomorrow.

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