A clearing trend through the region today as a high moves in clearing the last of the showers east. A strong southerly surge will bring gales to the east coast and strong swells as well, but that too should easy by later in the day.
A low pressure system which gave a drenching to WA is onward bound to SA today and will also give some reasonable follow up falls there, before moving into the west of NSW during Thursday also giving some reasonable rainfall for communities in the Lower Western and far western Riverina.
The rainfall may peter out a tad as it moves towards the east, but following a very cold start on Thursday with severe frost, there is a chance that a cold rain may fall as snow over higher ground along the GDR but flurries expected.
That low washes out in the northwesterly flow that develops during Friday ahead of a cold front that looks to spread rain and strong winds later in the day over the Lower Western spreading to remaining areas during the weekend with a gusty cold westerly flow to follow.
Snowfalls developing once again to lower levels. The rainfall should remain light to moderate and through central and southern inland parts of the state mainly west of the divide. The very cold and gusty conditions will ease during Sunday.
More frontal weather looms for next week with potential again for the same areas to pick up rainfall and the northern areas closer to the QLD border to stay relatively dry with the odd shower here and there.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure pattern for the coming 2 weeks, again largely unchanged with the main westerly wave action continuing to dominate the proceedings for the end of the month and as we kick off August. The rainfall and wintry weather will be determined by the wind bearing and the frontal movement, if the winds have a more northwesterly component over the state, then rainfall and winter impacts will not be as high to severe, if the winds have more of a southwest to westerly component, then we can expect bursts of moderate rainfall and snowfalls would continue to be moderate to heavy. At this stage the models have shifted to more a west to northwest flow over the weekend (dropping the severe weather impacts for now) and thus allowing a ridge to dig in from the northwest early next week. But more strong frontal weather follows from this time next week.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
GFS has more rainfall with the low pressure system coming through on Thursday afternoon into Friday with a cold airmass. The rainfall moderate over the Lower Western and for parts of the southern inland and towards the ACT. Some rainfall also likely if GFS is right over the Central and Northern Tablelands Friday and that may fall as snow! Then frontal systems brings rainfall to the southern inland and the southeast areas west of the divide, but with a northwest flow the falls will be kept away from the central and northern areas this weekend, but this COULD CHANGE. More fronts approach this time next week.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Similar spread in the pattern as per GFS but the low coming out of SA is weakening quicker that is causing rainfall not to be as heavy, but still lighter falls expected over the state. Moderate falls are still possible over the Lower Western and western Riverina. Then the fronts come through and there is evidence as mentioned overnight and this morning in the National Wrap that the flow is more northwesterly which could spare the northern half of the state from the worst of the weather during the weekend. Next week frontal weather will return from this time next week with rainfall likely to fall again over the inland of SA through NSW from next Friday through the following weekend.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall looks to be evenly spread throughout NSW during Thursday afternoon into the evening, with that rain lingering over the east, west of the divide during Friday with patchy snowfalls possible. Then we track the fronts through in a strong to gale force and cold westerly flow with showers for the southern half of the state, more numerous nearer the VIC border with the worst of the graziers weather further south on this guidance. Next week starting out dry with sunshine for most areas if the ridge holds, then more frontal weather knocking on the door during later next week with inland rainfall chances increasing.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged for NSW, I think the area that could surprise is the Lower Western in the coming 36hrs where the low tracks through but I have kept rainfall up to 15mm max for the period, but some areas could get that in 24hrs if the low behaves. I have pulled the rainfall up over the Northern Tablelands as well in response to the low diverting more east than south Friday so light rainfall up to 8mm possible for some and then a few showers this weekend. Otherwise the showery weather more frequent for the southern inland with the northern flank of the frontal weather bringing showery weather over the weekend before the ridge forms. Heaviest falls on the GDR and snowfalls will fall under 1000m this weekend in the south. A drier picture for early next week is gaining more traction but not willing to call it dry for southern areas just yet.
Frost Risk Forecast Thursday Morning
And a reminder for the severe frost likely to develop overnight into tomorrow morning, I will have an update on this during the afternoon when the latest data comes in, but looking at the satellite picture I may clear some of the western districts of the severe risk.
Freeze Risk Forecast Thursday Morning
No change to the forecast for the GDR where very cold weather is expected overnight and tomorrow morning with the cold airmass continuing to bring below average temperatures and with the clear skies today, the temperatures will fall away rapidly this evening.
More forecasts throughout the day including a look at the low coming through on Thursday and Friday, the cold outbreak over the weekend and another look the Indian Ocean.