CLEARING BRIEFLY FOR SA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE CLOUD IS COMING AND SO IS THE RAIN THURSDAY

That bodes good news for many through the state who are still trying to claw back from a dry start to the year. Weak high pressure though is moving in tomorrow to bring about a dry Wednesday for most areas, bar a few showers about the southeast coast.


Out west later in the day, there will be thickening cloud from morning with areas of rain after lunch, light to start with but some of it could increase and become more extensive later in the afternoon or evening before spreading towards the EP and YP overnight into Thursday.


Thursday looks wet through central areas with the rainfall developing early over the eastern districts and then spreading through western NSW and northwest VIC. Moderate falls also possible through the Riverlands, Murrylands as well as the Mallee.


The low moves on by during Thursday night with rain ending from west to east. However that opens the door for a fast moving cold front to blast through the southeast states, including SA from late Friday and into the weekend.


This system has the potential to bring severe winds, extensive showers, hail and thunder, and if the air is cold enough and further north, snowfalls possible about the Lofty Ranges and Flinders.


The weather winds down during Sunday ahead of more frontal weather in the medium term, so it is hard to spot a break of substance from the wintry westerly winds.


Lets look at the latest modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

A series of strong cold fronts are moving through the southern parts of the nation, one to the east is on the way out and we have turned dry. Another is on the way in with thickening cloud over the western districts tonight. Rain will develop over the western inland of SA during Wednesday before reaching the EP, YP later tomorrow night into Thursday morning and then over the Adelaide region and the Riverlands, Murrylands and the Upper Southeast during Thursday. The rain clearing from west to east during Thursday afternoon ahead of a strong front developing later Friday with a wintry wet and gusty weekend of weather for southern areas of the state. Next week we could have a dry day statewide but more frontal weather looms for mid to late next week with the same areas likely to pick up the rainfall. Though moisture values are improving in recent runs on global models so we could see rainfall impacts central and northwest inland areas next week.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall for the coming week look fairly reasonable, more follow up falls to the rainfall we had overnight and into today. Another decent drop expected with the low 10-20mm for many locations Thursday before another 5-25mm for the frontal weather this weekend. There could be heavier falls over 50mm for the Lofty Ranges. More rainfall again is in the medium term so there is no sign of any long dry spells.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very good agreement between the models tonight with the frontal weather clearing tonight and then all eyes on that low sweeping out of the west during Wednesday with rainfall spreading into the west of the state. That rainfall also expected to sweep into the east during Thursday before another strong front on Friday afternoon or night. The weekend windy and showery for the southeast and coastal areas. Cold air making it feel very wintry.

Then we watch that moisture and frontal weather approaching this time next week which could be productive in terms of rainfall once again for Ag areas.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall spread connected to the westerly fast flow pattern, that is remaining unchanged this evening. Moderate rainfall is likely with the low passing through during Thursday for coastal inland areas of the southern third of the state. Then we see a very fast and strong cold front that whips through over the weekend bringing more rain and strong winds to coastal areas. A clearing trend during Sunday and maybe Monday with showers contracting to the southeast. Then more frontal weather next week could kick off a large rain band over the state from this time next week at the earliest or at the end of next week. That would have moderate falls but I have not drawn it in just yet.

Rainfall for the next 10 days


Frost Forecast for Thursday

I may pull back the frost risks for SA looking at how fast the cloud is moving in from the west this evening, however I will wait til the morning to see how that is going, because there is still a large and high risk of frost for a wide area of the east and we sit right on the edge of that.

It is a busy week of weather, hope you are ready to stay with me this week.

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