CHECK OF THE MOISTURE AND SYSTEM LURKING NEXT WEEK.

Moisture looks set to sweep the nation again next week as a deep plume of moisture begins to work it's way out of the Indian Ocean and not only cross the country, but likely sweep further southwest of the nation, feeding cold fronts racing through the southern ocean.


This could provide widespread rainfall next week as the frontal weather increases once again.


Model Spread in relation to moisture movement - Valid Wednesday 14th of July 2021.

Fairly good agreement in the moisture coming through the Indian Ocean next week with the cold fronts continuing to move through the Southern Ocean at pace. The timing, scale and spread of moisture is still to be determined, each fronts timing will play a role in the scale of rainfall and where it goes. There is also a chance that low pressure may absorb a lot of the moisture coming into WA mid next week with major rainfall. Putting it simply, there are many ways to look at how this system evolves, but bottom line, a high chance of follow up rainfall is possible.


06z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Thursday 22nd of July 2021.

Note the plume of moisture now back where it was a day ago in the runs, this morning this model took the moisture well south of the nation with frontal weather damming the remainder of the moisture back near Java, tonight it is back in play and in line with other models. So in about about 4-5 days we will likely have a better handle on how the rainfall spreads across the nation, and how widespread it will be. I would say that WA is very close to almost certainly having rainfall next week from this sequence, but nothing is every 100%.

Model blend of the rainfall expected through next week from the moisture and subsequent cold fronts that move through the region. I think it is running a little wet in spots, but this will refine as we get closer.

More details to come in the morning National Wrap and the state based forecasts.


Have a great night.


52 views0 comments