BROADER UPDATE ENSO - SPRING 2022 AND SUMMER 2022/23

OVERVIEW


The ENSO OUTLOOK for the period remains of low confidence and will begin to improve as we move into the end of July.


While the Australian region has declared the La Nina over, many international agencies have suggested that it is indeed continuing for the remainder of this year at weak thresholds at least with minimal impact on Australia through the cooler season but it's influence likely to increase in impact during latter Spring and into Summer 2022/23.


As we transition into a time of cool neutral/weak La Nina, the lag impact of the prolonged La Nina is still being felt across the north and northeast of Australia with well above average SSTs still in place (which will likely fuel the rain event that gets underway next week, highlighting the anomalous weather features around the nation.


The chances of another La Nina forming in the Spring is at about 54% and Summer 59% on current guidance and looking at the broader data sets.


FORECAST INFORMATION


SPRING 2022

The overall forecast for Spring 2022 is for the Cool Neutral influence of the ENSO to be in place for the Australian region. The international models have various thresholds that still suggest that parameters for these areas will mean they assign a La Nina right through to the end of the year. For Australia, the persistence of the warmer waters towards the east and through the northern waters of Australia will continue throughout the coming months in response to this phase of the ENSO. It will lead to more moisture running through the jet stream from north of the nation and pushing that southwards into the NT and through QLD as we can see in the short and medium term. That will continue to feature. Along the east coast, onshore winds will lift the moisture into the eastern and southeastern inland of the nation and the presence of low pressure in relation to this is vital to widespread rainfall developing in the outlook period. Some members as you can see below suggest La Nina may increase in strength through Spring but the confidence is poor at the moment and this forecast will be adjusted during the weeks ahead as the data sets improve from about 6 weeks from now.


















SUMMER 2022/23

The ENSO region is forecast to remain at a weak La Nina or cool neutral phase at this time for Summer 2022/23. Now like the previous Summers we have just experienced, leading into those Summers, we were sitting with a neutral forecast during the middle of the year and then things turned sharply La Nina. Will it be the same this year? Quite possible but looking at the data sets, it is currently a 59% chance down from 64% last month. But that is marginal difference in the space of long-range forecasting. At this stage the forecast confidence is not great and that is normal at this time of year.



MEMBERS SPREAD - CLIMATE MODELS - ENSO NEXT 9 MONTHS

The overall trend is starting to strengthen the idea of a weak La Nina through the late Spring into early Summer, but because the international agencies are saying 50% chance, is because there is a predictability barrier that is retarding the view forward making it very challenging to know how the remainder of 2022 into 2023 will unfold. If you were a betting man and I am not, I would think we would be looking at another La Nina of substantial influence for the nation once the negative IOD concludes.

MY FORECAST FOR THE ENSO - NEXT 9 MONTHS

So my forecast reflects what happened in the previous 2 events where we had a triple dip La Nina, with a cool neutral ENSO tending into a La Nina through Spring and strengthening through Summer before waning faster than this year in Autumn of 2023. Will we see an El Nino next year, well a 30% chance we may be dealing with one in the Summer of 2023/24.

RAINFALL IMPACTS RELATED TO ENSO IS MODEST - THE IMPACTS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE NEGATIVE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE.


EARLY SPRING 2022

LATER SPRING

EARLY SUMMER

TEMPERATURES MOVING THROUGH SPRING AND SUMMER - ENSO HAS A WEAKER INFLUENCE, THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE HAS THE HIGHER INFLUENCE.

EARLY SPRING

LATE SPRING

EARLY SUMMER

I will extrapolate on the data sets and the information in my forecast package for Summer coming up on Sunday, but for now, focus on the short-term mechanics of the higher than average SSTs impacting northern and eastern Australia in direct response to the very long lived La Nina and Cool Neutral phase that is expected in the months ahead.


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