Just ahead of the evening update which I am preparing now, I just wanted to point out that the GFS has pushed the rainfall back west again in it's latest update which may be exciting if you are living in WA and through SA as well as areas that have missed out on rainfall and cooler weather for a while.

But the confidence in the forecasting remains poor and this is due to inconsistency.

Areas to watch and that I will cover off this evening.

  1. Rainfall developing over the east with the positive SAM phase gaining strength

  2. Rainfall developing over the north and west with the approaching MJO, how much actually gets into WA or bypasses the state?

  3. Will we see an Autumn Break in the coming 2 weeks?

More on that later, but below, I have posted the last 4 rainfall outputs from the GFS just to show you that away from the tropics, the guidance is rather crap.

Latest GFS 18Z - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

3am Update GFS 12Z - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

3pm Update - March 17 GFS 00Z - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

3am Update - March 17 - GFS 12Z - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

So as you can see there is no consistency from run to run away from the tropical areas.

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