AUTUMN OUTLOOK 2022

Forward planning is key for many and I am already looking into 2022. Here is the latest details on Autumn 2022. Notes underneath the video.

FORECAST

% chance of exceeding the median Autumn Rainfall 2022

The chance of exceeding the median seasonal rainfall is remaining elevated over portions of northern and eastern Australia as a direct result of the La Nina waning through the March and possibly lingering into April. It is something to watch as we move through January. If this was to occur, the result would be even wetter weather for the north of Australia with a prolonged wet season, the eastern seaboard will be very wet (especially if the SAM remains positive) and the wet season along the NSW coast which runs from March until June would be equal to what we saw earlier this year, producing those high end floods. The risk is near similar to last year. For the southeast and south, near normal conditions for the season is expected. The beginning of Autumn would likely start out wet but potentially turn more seasonal as we go along. No dry bias is currently strong enough to be drawn onto the charts at this time, but if there was to be a drier location, it would be SA and southern parts of WA. There is no signal for a negative IOD to develop through Autumn at this time however, it is not expected to be anything other than neutral. Conditions remaining seasonal in terms of influence from the Indian Ocean. The Autumn break may not be required, in fact it could be an Autumn break from the rain that we need!

% chance of exceeding the median Autumn Temperatures 2022

Temperatures mostly seasonal throughout though leaning cooler over the east and north. This would be linked to the persistent cloud cover and widespread rainfall developing throughout the nation's north and east and the wet season in both locations to be above normal. The rest of the nation likely to see normal conditions overall with the usual fluctuations in temperature. The guidance still not great this far out to measure the impact of early season cold fronts or cold outbreaks for the south of the nation. At this time, there is no signal of it being early or later than normal.

More information in the video at the top of the page on all the data. I will have another look at Autumn in early January - so stay tuned for that. I will have another national wrap of the weather for the week ahead coming up from this evening and a look at all things models and rainfall.

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