AS YOU LOOK AT THE STATE BASED FORECASTS - THIS IS WHY IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING

As an addition to the information this evening, this applies to most of the nation. Where the upper-level lows go, will determine the spread of moisture and ultimately the spread of rainfall.


There is no consistency from run to run within a model agency and let alone amongst the international models as a whole, so keep that in your mind.


People plan things around weather and have different thresholds and tolerances for this type of outlook, but under such guidance I would not be making any decisions based on what I am seeing, and I hope you understand that the forecast charts I am preparing also carry that low confidence for that reason.


So, stay close and come back daily!


NEXT TUESDAY - THE FIRST PART OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE TROPICS -- PLACEMENT OF TROUGH AND MOISTURE KEY TO RAINFALL SPREAD


GFS Upper Air Pattern - Tuesday

Euro Upper Air Pattern - Tuesday

CMC Upper Air Pattern - Tuesday

THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY SYSTEM TO WATCH NEXT WEEK (WHICH IS WHY THE GFS IS OFF THE CHARTS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS!)


GFS Upper Air Pattern - Next Friday

CMC Upper Air Pattern - Next Friday

Euro Upper Air Pattern - Next Friday

Many moving pieces, many solutions. Broader rainfall data sets and analysis due out with my take in about an hour or so.