There is not a great deal of change to the forecast charts for the coming event starting Sunday and persisting to about Wednesday next week.
The airmass is marginally warmer than the last run of data sets from Wednesday night which is part of the normal fluctuation as we get better guidance ahead of the system unfolding. This may see snowfalls come and go from forecast guidance away from Alpine Areas, but as mentioned, we will know more as we get closer and so the forecast is an alert to the regions to be prepared for a Wintry blast and major atmosphere change.
I will start to issue thunderstorm charts and winter weather charts from Saturday afternoon and into Sunday for the southeast states as we get closer. Damaging winds are a big concern for many areas Sunday afternoon through Tuesday as well.
Large concern for high impact weather for stock exposed to these conditions so start making preparations now for the cold blast moving through.
Looking into next week, we will see cold air envelope the southeast and southern areas and drift into the eastern interior and then surge up into the tropics bringing finally, some cooler weather.
Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds - Sunday to Wednesday
With the system rolling into well above average temperatures with some moisture, this will allow a very tight thermal gradient developing, with supports strong to gale force northerly winds developing ahead of the feature. So, expect to see land gale warnings for parts of SA, VIC and NSW through to the ACT and across much of TAS.
Farmers and Graziers - Sunday to Wednesday
Once the front passes through, we will see a fierce cold airmass with gale force westerly winds over much of the southeast. Widespread showers, hail and thunder is forecast and snowfalls down to low levels.
Snow Forecast - Monday to Wednesday
Snowfalls could fall down to about 500m in VIC and through NSW the snowline could come down to about 700m, so that would bring the first flurries of the year to the Northern, Central and Southern Tablelands and possibly around the ACT and Canberra. This will likely be the first event to bring snowfalls to the Alpine Areas and setting hopefully a good start to the ski season for resorts in the region.
Frost Risk - Tuesday through Friday
The airmass begins to warm from this time next week with the new high-pressure ridge moving through, but we have to be on the watch for severe frosts developing over the southeast. Certainly, looking at the coldest mornings of the year for these areas. Possibly a freeze for parts of the ACT and points south towards the VIC border (temperatures sustained below -5C)
Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday
Severe frosts are possible about the southern inland of WA during the early part of the week while the southeast is being lashed by the gales and showery cold airmass.
More to come in your state-based forecasts tonight.