A wet night through parts of SA overnight with 90mm at Minalton a nice drop and scattered falls of 10-20mm overnight as well. Will check out that fall on the EP to see if it is verified later this morning.
The showers along the frontal boundary are moving northeast, but the airmass is cold, and showers are likely to become more lively today with local hail and thunder also possible, mainly this morning about the southeast of Adelaide towards the VIC border. The air is warming and stabalising through towards the west with a weak ridge approaching.
The low pressure system that is bringing rain periods into WA today, is expected to broaden and extend further east during today and during Wednesday, this bringing cloud to eastern areas of WA and then rainfall into SA during Thursday with more widespread falls to come. These falls are unlikely to be as heavy as the ones that occurred during Monday but certainly some follow up moderate rainfall is likely.
Come Thursday and Friday the rainfall will extend from SA into NSW with the skies clearing briefly, before another front approaches, that sets the scene for quite a windy and showery weekend over the coastal areas of SA.
The rainfall will likely ease later on Sunday before more frontal weather returns next week.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Models are largely unchanged this morning with the showery weather continuing this morning before it moves on by to the east later today. The weak ridge pushes in for Wednesday with a clearer day, but cloud increasing out west for Thursday with rainfall developing later and that makes for a wet Thursday night into Friday. There could be some scattered moderate falls again of 10-25mm for the EP, YP and carried through the Adelaide region into western VIC and western NSW. The rainfall clears out Friday afternoon with a pair of fronts to follow with strong and gusty winds and cold weekend to follow. More moderate rainfall. There is also the chance of snowfalls for parts of elevated SA. We will see on that front later this week, but it is looking active for the remainder of this week with little dry periods away from the inland. The inland, dry, cool to mild with blowing dust from time to time.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Showers today clears quite nicely to the east later today, but note with the low rolling in from WA during Thursday and Friday, the rainfall is coming up with that feature. That is promising for further follow up falls and if these falls do verify, many areas will move towards the average for July, some above average. The rainfall also plentiful for the Ag areas in the east bordering VIC and southwest NSW, that certainly would be handy. I am not drawing that in yet on my charts but I will later today if the confidence increases. More rainfall this weekend with a pair of fronts and cold windy weather, some heavy falls possible about the Adelaide Hills and southeast districts. More fronts developing this time next week just to the west.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Very similar pressure pattern to GFS for this week, the front moves east today, a weak ridge passes through for Wednesday but that also has its skates on and moves into NSW later tomorrow making way for the low pressure to move out of WA with widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday. More frontal weather for the weekend keeps the rainfall going before a weak ridge pushes in early next week, but look out west, here comes the NEXT bunch of fronts and more rainfall. That is reflective of the forecast for July that I have been talking about back in June on Facebook and then here.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The Euro has more moisture but places the rainfall differently throughout the SA region with heavier falls for the NSW and VIC ranges and some decent falls into southeast SA. So clearly this will chop and change but over the course of the next week, falls will accumulate to being in the moderate range for southern areas with heavy falls for those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime. But you move north inland, less rainfall and dry and dusty weather expected for the central and northern half of the state. More frontal weather expected next week may bring some inland rainfall chances later next week, the Euro has more moisture in the forecast period next week to finish off July.
Rainfall for the next 10 days.
Rainfall has been quite productive overnight into Tuesday with further showers for the southeast today, on the way out later. New rain band moving into the west of the state during Thursday will progress steadily east and bring moderate falls over the EP, YP and into the Adelaide region and then into the Riverlands and Mallee and through the Upper Southeast Districts. Frontal weather over the weekend bring further wet and windy weather to coastal areas and immediate inland regions. The inland north of Coober Pedy to Emu Fields should remain mostly dry with blowing dust at times.
Frost Forecast Thursday Morning.
And another reminder for those out over the east bordering VIC and NSW, that there could be frost Thursday, possibly severe for some areas, which could cause a few issues for some cropping farmers.
More weather details coming throughout the day with the Climate Outlook due by around lunchtime.