Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in progress over a good portion of southern and southeast regions of the state, with a trough and wind change working it's way through the region.
Some of these storms could pack a punch with damaging winds and 1-2cm hail possible tonight.
Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday 3rd of May 2021.
Thunderstorm forecast for Tuesday 4th May 2021.
Through eastern SA and western NSW, patchy rainfall along a narrow cloud band may see some areas receive 1-10mm of rainfall tonight.
Tomorrow a cold pool with move closer and then pass through the region by afternoon. This will run into modest amounts of moisture to see widespread showers and local thunderstorms develop. Small hail is also possible and moderate to locally heavy falls of rainfall, with the showers and storms not moving too fast.
Upper air heights for Tuesday afternoon showing the cold pool moving north through NSW.
The falls will be scattered in nature.
Modelling on rainfall has been very inconsistent with large variability in the forecast from run to run and that will continue.
Euro 18z rainfall accumulation for the next 4 days.
CMC 12z run rainfall accumulation for the next 4 days.
GFS 18z run for rainfall accumulation for the next 4 days.
It all comes down to the position, timing, strength and speed of which the system passes through the region and that won't be determined really until tomorrow and how that system then interacts with moisture in the east and what is left in the moisture coming out from the northwest of the nation.
Rainfall forecast for the next 4 days - Weather Matters with Karl Lijnders
Come Wednesday and the upper low will be stationed over the NSW/QLD border region with showers and thunderstorm near that centre. On the southern flank, onshore easterly winds will send in areas of rain with moderate falls long the coast, especially over the southeast quarter of NSW and into eastern VIC. Scattered showers will extend inland to the GDR with the inland largely drying out.
Upper heights on Wednesday showing the cold upper low moving towards the border with NSW and QLD.
From Thursday the rain contracts to the coast with conditions inland becoming drier and clearer with dry air being pulled in with a westerly wind shift. The upper air heights are recovering with the upper low moving away from the coast. Showers will persist in onshore winds but become more coastal in nature.
Upper air heights for Thursday into
Friday shows the upper low moving well offshore with heights coming up over southeastern Australia ahead of the next wave out west.
The pattern will turn more zonal as we go into next week with systems arriving out of the west, with the potential for one as early as this weekend through SA and then into the eastern inland on Mother's Day.
Simulated IR satellite for the week with a focus on the west coast.
There is more weather to come but we will focus on one system at a time as we go through the next period as it gets confusing to track rainfall numbers.