Scattered morning frost possible on Monday morning throughout inland portions of NSW, especially along the divide in the north where the winds will be calmer and the sky clearer. Some ripper frosts are possible later this week with a freeze risk for many locations in between systems Wednesday night into Thursday morning so a heads up on that.

Frost Risk Monday Morning - Valid Sunday 18th of July 2021.

The next system to impact NSW is expeted Tuesday with now looking more likely the rainfall could be more widespread, not necessarily heavy, but extend further north and east, so something that may have to be adjusted in forecasts tomorrow if this trend continues. For now, showers increasing from the south and west on Tuesday with some local hail and thunderstorms a chance, a cold airmass likely to surge north on the western flank of the long wave that is located in the Tasman.

The system will clear off fairly quickly during Wednesday with a blanket of very cold sinking air under high pressure timing itself for widespread severe frost and freeze conditions, for some locations this could be the coldest morning of the year, and we have had some absolute doozies.

A low moving through SA on Wednesday night into Thursday will then approach the western districts with thickening cloud leading to areas of light rainfall, as the system moves through the region before diving southeast absorbed in the westerly flow.

By Friday, another fast moving long wave trough will be in the region with a nasty looking cold front expected to move through later in the day into Saturday with widespread land gales, severe wind chill, low level snowfalls and moderate rainfall for southern and central inland areas, the best of it falling along the western slopes. Some of that rain could also extend north into the northern inland but I am keeping it further south for now

The weekend, looks messy with gales and showers, snowfalls down to 500m and very high wind chill throughout, before another high comes in.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

You can see that fast flow pattern coming through, and I thought I would use this product tonight that really highlights the cold air later in the week which could bring low level snow for a number of days of southeastern Australia, with moderate rainfall expected otherwise in a nasty gale. This has a severe weather look to it. Otherwise the rainfall looks widespread on Tuesday with the front passing through, the low pressure that comes through on Thursday could bring some OK falls to western and southern inland NSW. The rule of thumb is the further north you go towards QLD and if you are living in the lee of the ranges in a westerly wind regime, you should see little rainfall but a lot of wind.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall for the coming 10 days is dictated by the westerly wind profile, so once again anywhere exposed to a westerly wind regime, looks set for follow up rainfall. A decent system early in the week followed by a much stronger system coming in later this week will be the more widespread rainfall events. For western areas, you could get three bursts of light to moderate rainfall in the coming 10 day window which would be beneficial.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro tonight is not as robust with the system later in the week, but it has more rainfall for the lead systems coming in Tuesday and the low during Thursday over western NSW. So it is going to be a case of wait and see with each systems, the first system will be more focused over coastal southeast Austraia but the cold air will surge into the eastern inland later Tuesday into Wednesday. Light rainfall for now expected for inland NSW of 2-10mm. The air is also dry so again that severe frost and freeze risk will be running very high during Thursday morning. Then comes the next set of cold fronts this weekend. Another strong set of fronts approaches early the following week with the chance of more light to moderate rainfall.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall expected to accumulate through 3 events over the course of the next 10 days. The rainfall not especially heavy as per last week at this time, but there is a chance the weekend system that is coming Friday onwards with that strong cold front that GFS suggests could bring more widespread falls. The system at the end of the sequence may also bring a band of rainfall outside of this forecast period.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall continues to favour those areas to the westerly wind regime and again coastal areas and those along the QLD border will see less falls as per last week. The bigger rainfall will be linked to coastal areas. The main window for rainfall for NSW will be Tuesday afternoon, Thursday out over the west and central/southern inland areas with the weakening low and then with the stronger features coming through Friday night and over the weekend.

More weather to come this week - make sure you save the page on all your devices and so you have easy access. If you need more forecasting solutions, I do offer private tailored forecasting for regions. So get in now to access my services karllijnders@weathermatters.org for a quote.

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