A SOAKER COMING FOR WA.

Not much change in the weather prognostics for WA, with a firm pattern developing of fast moving cold fronts, frequent bursts of moderate rainfall and moderate to heavy rainfall accumulation for large parts of the SWLD over the course of the next 10 days.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Wet and windy weather to develop across the state with moderate to heavy falls reserved for western coastal areas initially but this could be extended inland as more fronts line up the west coast early in the week and again later in the week with another set of fronts to move through.


The first of the strong fronts lines up the southwest tomorrow and brings rain tomorrow night through Monday.


Thunderstorms are also possible as the front rolls through with damaging winds possible along the front and with thunderstorms.


Thunderstorm Forecast for Sunday - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

90% chance of thunderstorms developing within 20km of a given point within the pink zone on Sunday afternoon and evening with the risk tapering down by 10% per colour down the wheel.

Damaging Winds Risk Forecast - Sunday - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Damaging winds of up to 100kmh possible with the passage of a front and thunderstorms that develop ahead of and on the front during Sunday afternoon and evening.

Low - 5-20%, Moderate - 21-40%, High - 41-60% chance of damaging wind gusts observed within 25km of a given point.

Farmers and Graziers Forecast - For Monday - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Weather conditions for parts of the southwest will put stock under stress with high wind chill, showery weather with periods of wintry bursts on Monday. This is likely to continue into mid week.

A strong westerly wind regime will be in place for a good portion of this week with further fronts rotating around a low pressure system south of the state. This will keep rainfall chances high, temperatures below average and a prolonged period of wintry weather.


So the forecast is pretty easy, wet and windy for many days this week.


A break in the weather may occur Thursday with a weak ridge rolling over but another set of fronts quickly pounce in the wake of that short wave ridge bringing more wet and windy weather to the southwest and west coasts.


Euro 00z run - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Can clearly see the barrage of frontal weather with that brief break on Thursday into Friday before the next wave of fronts come through with even more heavy rainfall.



Euro 00z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Extensive rainfall coming for the west coast, with frequent fronts and keeping an eye on that moisture off the NW coast through this period. Can it get involved with any of the fronts?

GFS 00z run - Rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Taking the models out to the medium term the rainfall continues right through mid month into the 4th week of July. There could be some flooding issues for some catchments about the southwest with GFS suggesting falls over 200mm possible from Perth around the bend to Albany and the adjacent inland. Heavy falls of 50-120mm possible under the guidance for inland areas of the SWLD.

CMC 00z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Has more moisture coming in at a higher latitude to the other models so will keep an eye on that, this would have greater results rainfall wise for those over the southern and central interiors.

The moisture profile sitting out over the Indian Ocean is deep and continually regenerating in an area of convergence. As you can see, the linkage to the frontal systems and the northward movement of the westerly wind belt is key to more rainfall coming through inland areas through the back half of this period with the second batch of fronts.


Satellite Imagery - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

Note the moisture has now linked into the fast moving large cold front, likely to peak offshore with the best of the rainfall but certainly an encouraging sign for those wanting more rainfall through the peak of this wet season in SW WA.

GFS 00z run - Precipitable Water Value Anomalies for the next 16 days - Valid Saturday 3rd of July 2021.

The more green you see on the screen, the more moisture available to work with, coinciding with the fast flow pattern. If low pressure gets involved, then rainfall breaks out and we have a good supply of both in the coming week or two.

More weather updates to come, but share the news that weather is being done differently here and for a low price, it is good accurate information that you can trust will be ahead of the game.

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