A SNEAK PEAK INTO THE MEDIUM TERM

I will have more to say on this tomorrow when the fresh data comes in, but more frontal weather and a fast zonal flow continues next week.


There is also another batch of elevated PW Values that will work their way into the way into jet stream bringing up chances of inland rainfall next week.


The north of the nation also looking dry for the coming 2 weeks, but there are signals that the pattern may be breaking down, so heat levels may come down a bit but humidity values may increase towards the start of August.


The persistent westerly wind regime also looks to start relaxing during the beginning of August which may spell a better chance of inland rainfall developing with moisture being able to accumulate over inland areas, rather than being blasted by at 120kt jet across the country.


Euro 12z Precipitable Water Values - Valid for the next 10 days

Moisture values are coming up in the Euro tonight, it may not quite be reflected in the rainfall output but there are some twists and turns coming in the forecasts next week for southern Australia. Those inland of the coast need to pay attention to the moisture building up over inland WA.

GFS 12z Surface Pressure Pattern - Valid for the next 16 days

Taking it out a little further and the GFS has more moisture coming through next week but notice the dry air coming in for the end of the first week of August and a more troughy pattern rather than the zonal fast flow pattern, we need to see this occur for the rainfall to spread over the inland and not just dominate the southern coastline via the westerly wind regime. The high at the end of the run may also just be the system to cause a pattern flip which would end the dominance of the frontal barrage, but again it is in the medium term, we all know this can and will change.


More to come in the morning after 530am.


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