A REVIEW OF THE DATA AND RAINFALL INFORMATION TONIGHT.

It is a very active period, the models in the short term presenting some big falls for the south and east. Then it is the west of the nation that turns wet and stormy early next week while there are hints of a trough with heavy showers and storms for coastal QLD and NSW early next week as well. Then can the rainfall from the west make it across to SA and points east?


Lets take a look


SHORT TERM

We have covered off the significance of the next few days, the rainfall is uneven in distribution across northern NSW and southern inland QLD with this next system bringing the severe thunderstorm risk. Rain more extensive over southern NSW, VIC, southern SA and TAS where more scattered to widespread falls are expected. The wet weather then shifts to the SWLD of WA and up the west coast of WA with a strong cold front and low pressure system. This could bring a months worth of rain to the region. The wet weather may return to the east coast with a pressure trough next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms on and east of the GDR from about the Capricornia down to the Central Coast of NSW. The tropics come alive once again through next week after a brief respite with an upper high.


UKMET - Rainfall Next 7 Days - LOW CHANCE

MEDIUM TERM

The weather from WA is expected to have a battle on its hands running into the east coast trough which may set up a block in the Tasman Sea with a high over NZ. This would mean less rainfall coming into VIC and SA, however I would hold your horses on that idea as the modelling tonight has trended wetter once again for SA and VIC with follow up rain, that coming back into southern inland NSW this time next week. The rainfall over the east coast could turn heavy if the low develops on the trough closer to the coast, then clearly rainfall forecasts will come up. The tropics as mentioned trend more active.


ICON - Rainfall Next 8 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

KMA - Rainfall Next 12 Days - LOW CHANCE

GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

ENSEMBLE DATA

A slight split in the modelling within the ensemble data. The CMC is still running consistently wetter and I reckon that is the right solution for now. The others have been playing catch up to CMC with the last few weeks of weather. Spring can throw up some significant curve balls weather wise within the short term as per the SA low pressure system tonight and tomorrow. So that sort of weather, the specifics are not quite picked up in this data sets.


GFS - Rainfall Next 16 Days (median of 35 members) - LOW CHANCE

CMC - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 30 members) - HIGH CHANCE

EURO - Rainfall Next 15 Days (median of 51 members) - MODERATE CHANCE


LONG TERM

Still wet.....


CFS - Rainfall Next 6 Weeks - MODERATE CHANCE

And wet...

More details from 7am EDT tomorrow - it will be a very busy day so stay up to date, stay close to the page!!

92 views0 comments