A REVIEW OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM

Once again using the broader and less used data sets, holds the key to better rainfall expectations and more reasonable rainfall expectations and spread across the country through the coming 1-2 weeks.


Let's take a look this evening


00Z GFS - Rainfall next 2 Weeks (35 members) - MODERATE CHANCE

This data set shows the very acute and heavy rainfall totals over the eastern parts of QLD with intensive rainfall forecast over northern and central inland portions of QLD and along the adjacent coastal areas. The rainfall tapers off rapidly as you cross the NT and SA border where higher air pressure and more divergent and sinking air is found. Rainfall numbers are starting to tick up on this model for the west, but it is the driest out of the bunch. Higher rainfall over the northern tropics for this time of year with this model showing falls about 4x what you would expect if it came off. The rainfall over the southeast areas at about seasonal values for rainfall at this time of year.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (51 members) HIGH CHANCE

The model sees the heavier rainfall over in the west with the moisture streaming in off the Indian Ocean and spreading southeast through inland WA through the medium term, which is an idea that I am starting to align with. Will be interesting to see if the single data sets pick up on this idea. Looking over QLD and NSW, well above and near record rainfall is possible this week, especially through QLD with that flood risk. Rainfall over the southeast and back through SA around seasonal expectations but numbers are starting to increase for SA thanks to the better moisture spreading through the nation in the medium term. So will watch with interest in the days ahead, but it is the most plausible idea.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 2 Weeks (30 Members)- MODERATE CHANCE

This is more aligned with the Euro and sees higher rainfall coming through the western interior thanks to the remains of Karim working through the jet stream. The excessive falls over QLD and NSW could lead to local flooding, it is much more acute than the other two models however and shows heavier rainfall into southeast parts of the country with a front this weekend. Rain increasing over the west will come through southern parts of the nation more likely into the medium term as the frontal wave train cranks into gear.

The next 6 weeks are looking very active and the outlook for the remainder of May into June will be updated tomorrow.

More coming up from 6am EST with a look at the systems to watch for the early birds and full forecast video updated from 8am EST. Have a great night.