I have made numerous posts about this over the past 4 days but the weather is here with a stronger system expected this afternoon in SA, that system into TAS, VIC and southern NSW tonight and then a moderating day on Sunday with the weather easing from west to east as a weak ridge moves in.

Farmers and Graziers Risk Forecast for this weekend.

The forecast is largely unchanged with the systems now evolving in real time. The coldest of the weather is expected to arrive in SA from lunchtime, western VIC from after 3pm then through the remainder of the southeast tonight into Sunday. Conditions have eased over southern WA this morning.

Thunderstorm Forecast for Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible through a broad area of the southeast during Saturday. A cold front will bring up the chance of thunderstorms as it passes through NSW during Saturday afternoon and reaching the divide later. Thunderstorms will become scattered behind the front for southern SA, VIC and TAS in the cold air field following the front. Some of these bringing the chance of damaging winds gusts. The risk decreasing over inland areas at night but continuing about the coastal areas of VIC and TAS during tonight and into Sunday.

Hail Risk Forecast Saturday.

Any shower or thunderstorm throughout the region will be capable of producing small hail, with light accumulations likely, due to the speed to which the storms and showers will be moving. The risk clears the inland later Saturday and contracts to coastal SA, VIC and TAS.

Damaging Winds Risk Forecast - Saturday and Sunday

This forecast is largely unchanged from yesterday with any shower or thunderstorm activity over the southeast and adjacent inland capable of producing wind squalls of 100kmh. Strong and squally gradient winds outside of the showery weather will be gusting to 100kmh through parts of SA, VIC and TAS as well as coastal and elevated NSW.

Snowline Forecast and Snowfalls for the next 10 days.

The snowline will descend to 400m later tomorrow over VIC, 600m in NSW and near sea level in TAS. The issue for areas in NSW, the air may be too dry for snowfalls with the showery weather further south but potential is there. Snowfalls are likely through some of the outskirts of Melbourne, heavy snowfalls possible over Alpine areas this weekend with 40-60cm possible. More snowfalls developing next week.

Stay safe and up to date with the official warnings as always from the BoM, but as you can see whether does not obey borders.

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